Oklahoma For Obama

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2008-11-09T07:04:00.001-06:00

Final Countup

2008-11-08T09:32:00.003-06:00

Whoops! I was right about Missouri's electoral votes, but not the Omaha Nebraska vote. It looks like they counted absentee ballots last in Nebraska, and they went overwhelmingly to Obama. So the final total for the Great Election of 2008 ends up being 365 for Obama to 173 for McCain.

This vindicates the Obama campaign's decision to spend some time and money in Omaha in the final days of the campaign. That in turn vindicated the Nebraska legislature's decision to split their electoral votes that way. Given this result, I have to wonder if any other states that got neglected this cycle are going to follow Nebraska's lead.

Where We Go From Here
There are still a couple of Senate races to be decided, but this pretty much wraps up the Presidential campaign news for 2008.

For those of you wondering we at the campaign will be doing now that the campaign is over, I had wondered that myself.

Greg I know is planning on helping in the Great Crusade to take our state back for The Light ... if he doesn't get called up to DC, which I understand is a possibility. Mary Jo and Blanca I know will continue fighting until the day the Good Lord calls them Home. That's just the way they were made.

As for me? Calvin Rees at DemoOkie has graciously offered to add me as an author there. When I started this effort I did a survey of every Democratic and progressive blog and message board in the state that I could find. Calvin runs the best general-purpose Democratic message board in the state, and his blog has become an important resource for me here at Oklahoma For Obama, so I was very honored to accept. If you are interested, my first post is already up. See you there!

Results - Friday

2008-11-07T07:34:00.002-06:00

Another day out, and we still don't have a final count. North Carolina did finally come in, so we do now stand at 364 to 173. However, it now looks like Obama is likely to get the Omaha EV from Nebraska, (still not Missouri though). It's nice to see some vindication for Nebraska finally in their decision to split their EV's this way. Let's hope this causes some other larger states to follow their example.

2008-11-06T06:55:00.002-06:00

Its two days later, and we still don't have all the EV's in. However, the final Nebraska EV and the ones for Missouri look like they are going to go McCain. North Carolina is still a tossup, but one where Obama is slightly ahead at the moment. So the final count looks like it will probably be 364 to 173.

Obama has named his transition team. No names on it I recognize by sight, but that's typical for a transition team. The main transition news is the on again off again talk about Rahm Emmanuel becoming Obama's Chief of Staff. He's got a rep as a real down and dirty take no prisoners kind of guy. I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be with him anywhere else in the Administration, but Chief of Staff is a good fit for that. If Obama doesn't want to hear from you, you will not be getting by Rahm.

One of the big questions a lot of us on The Left have about the aftermath of the election has been, will the Reps Get It? Will they accept the repudiation the country has handed them with, and do the soul-searching required to rebuild their party, or will they find a couple of convenient scapegoats and go on using their same old message that worked so well in 1980 when they crafted it? Frankly the longer they stay in denial, the better off we will be.

So far, Denial seems to be winning. There's been a fair bit of blaming Palin. It turns out she spent even more on clothes than was reported. She had her staffers buy her stuff on their credit cards, which are only now being charged back to the campaign for reimbursement. It would be funny if it weren't so...aw heck, it's funny.

There's also a lot of talk that they lost because they weren't "conservative enough". I call this the Tinkerbell theory. If you believe enough in Conservatism, it will work. If you failed, that's proof you didn't believe enough!

So it's likely that we are going to see more sillyness in the future from the remaining Republicans in Congress (for example, our entire Oklahoma delegation). Fortunately, they are no longer in power, so it shouldn't be too damaging, just entertaining.

Awwww...they're so cute when they get all 1980 like that.

Oklahoma, The Land that Time Forgot

2008-11-05T08:06:00.003-06:00

Sadly things did not go well here in Oklahoma. Obama did not win a single county. Every Democrat running in a statewide race lost, as did Oliver for Tulsa's representative.

While the rest of the country was having a transformational election, we seemed to be stuck in 2004. The results were exactly the same.
Here are the numbers from the state election board:

2004:
JOHN F. KERRY       DEM   503,966   34.43%
GEORGE W. BUSH      REP   959,792   65.57%
2008:
BARACK OBAMA        DEM   502,329   34.36%
JOHN McCAIN         REP   959,808   65.64%

Landslide

2008-11-05T07:11:00.003-06:00

I'd like to say "the results are in", but as I write this the 26 electoral votes for Missouri and North Carolina are still up in the air. There's been some kind of weirdness in Georgia too, something about the vote totals being rediculously low, so some folks have thrown their 15 EV's back out too.

However, even without them Obama has the largest electoral victory since Regan. When you add in what happened with the house and senate races, it's clear the Republicans got spanked.

I was expecting the win of course, but the implications of it didn't actually hit me until it was announced. It is very hard indeed not to see this as a vindication our the ideals of freedom and equality that we have strayed so far from these last 8 years. This is both due to the personal story of the winner, and the resounding nature of the defeat of the current party holding the White House.

Perhaps my favorite story of the night was the impromptu celebration that started (in the rain) in front of the White House. (DC, of course, voted %93 for Obama). From CNN:

At least 1,000 people gathered on Washington's Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House late Tuesday night, shouting "Obama! Obama!" and "Yes we can!" Uniformed Secret Service officers were overheard, saying they'd never seen anything like it.

Of course celebrations weren't even limited to this country. Kenya, the birthplace of Obama's father, has declared tomorrow a national holiday. While other countries aren't going quite that far, there are reports of celebrations all over Europe, Africa, and in parts of Asia.

The more interesting (and perhaps relevent) thing is what this does for US clout. For example, European leaders are openly expressing worries that requests from President Obama for more support in places like Afghanistan are going to be difficult to turn down, due to his popularity with their own constituents.

Watch Parties

2008-11-04T16:39:00.003-06:00

I just got back from driving a voter to the polls, so now its time to go over the area watch parties.

Tulsa County Democratic Party and
Senator Nacy Riley (SD37) and
George Bullock (HD71) and
Seneca Scott (HD72)
at 7:30 pm
Transport Workers Union Hall
11945 East Pine Street, Tulsa

Senator Tom Adelson (SD78)
Representative Lucky Lamons (HD61)
Representative Jeannie McDaniel (HD78)
7:00 pm
Baxter's Interurban Grill
717 South Houston Avenue, Tulsa

Sebastian Lantos (HD67)
7:00 pm
Bluestone Steakhouse & Seafood Restaurant
10032 South Sheridan Road

Karen Keith (Tulsa CC2)
7:00 pm
Leon's - South Peoria
33rd & Peoria, Tulsa

Georgianna Oliver (1st Congress)
7:00 pm
Downtown Doubletree
616 West 7th St., Tulsa

General
6:00 pm
Jazz Hall of Fame
111 East 1, Tulsa

They Will Enter Zion With Signing

2008-11-04T14:36:00.003-06:00

The reports I'm getting are of very heavy turnout, particularly in North Tulsa. For example, the World reported the wait at Mt. Zion Baptist Church at more than an hour and a half. If were were to see Tulsa County go blue this year, this is exactly the reports we'd be seeing right now.

I've added a couple of gadgets from MSNBC to the blog that should report realtime election results, once the polls start to close. If you are in front of a computer then, stay tuned here.

An American Prayer

2008-11-04T11:13:00.000-06:00

Conservatives for Obama

2008-11-04T10:16:00.002-06:00

You probably know about the Republican moderates supporting Obama, like Colin Powell.

What you may not have heard so much about is the amazing number of Conservative pundits who have come out in support of Obama. One example is Christopher Buckley, son of arch conservative William F. Buckley, founder of National Review.

Another is favorite Conservative talk show guest Andrew Sullivan. Here he was on Colbert last night making a strong case for Obama being the Conservative choice for president.

The direct link to this video is http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/207785/november-03-2008/andrew-sullivan . Email this to your conservative friends.

VOTE

2008-11-04T06:54:00.002-06:00

Today is the day we change the world.

To find your polling place in Tulsa County, use this neat tool to find your polling place. Outside Tulsa County, you can use the State's locator. Polls are open *now* and close at 7PM.

If you need a ride, call 747-7933 (League of Women Voters), 584-0001 (Metro Tulsa Urban League), 663-0377 (YWCA of Tulsa), or 850-2048 or 231-3340 (Coalition for the American Dream).

Volunteer Opportunities
Once you've taken care of your own voting responsibilities, here are the volunteer opportunities we have available.

Drive people to the polls - Call Darrel Knox at 734-7560
Sign Teams - Email Greg Markley
Phone Banking - Call Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662
Phone Banking to Missouri Voters - email Tom Donahy

Fired Up, Ready to Go!

Obama on Native Issues

2008-11-03T12:05:00.004-06:00

I found this video of a speech Obama gave on First Nation issues several months back when he made a campaign stop at the Crow Nation (first and only presidential candidate to do so).

A fair bit of this is specific to reservations, but I think lot of the issues he raised will be of great interest here in Oklahoma.

One Day More

2008-11-03T07:42:00.005-06:00

Tomorrow is the Judgement Day.
Tomorrow we discover what our God in Heaven has in store.

Last Day of Early Voting

2008-11-03T06:56:00.002-06:00

Today is the last day for early voting at your county election board office. The hours are 8AM to 6PM. That means everyone who gets in line by 6PM will get to vote, so feel free to run by after work.

The Tulsa County offices are at 555 North Denver. I have maps to that and other area county board offices here. It may be quite crowded, so it is suggested that you come in from the north and park in one of the nearby church parking lots. Remember that no campaign material (including shirts and buttons) is allowed in a polling place.

Volunteer Opportunities
If you'd like to do a bit more than just vote, there are still plenty of volunteer opportunities available.

Drive people to the polls - Call Darrel Knox at 734-7560
Sign Teams - Email Greg Markley
Phone Banking - Call Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662
Phone Banking to Missouri Voters - email Tom Donahy

McCain's House

2008-11-02T14:28:00.010-06:00

Thanks to twoidhd for pointing this out.

With all the talk about McCain's houses, have any of you been curious what one of them would look like on the inside? Well, you are in luck. It turns out he's selling one of them, and there's a video walthrough available online. Just twelve million dollars and its all yours. Don't worry about John; he's got 8 more!

Don't listen to all that talk about John being out of touch with the common man. He has his TV room, just like you.

(click on pictures for full size image)

He's got that back deck, just like the one you worked so hard on.

He's got the enclosed wine room, just like yo...aw...who the hell am I kidding here?

The furnishings alone in these couple of rooms probably cost more than most houses in Oklahoma.

The lesson here is clear: If you get a chance to marry an heiress, do it. Don't let any silly moral consideration, like say being already married to someone else, get in your way. Particularly not if your "old" wife gets crippled and disfigured in an auto accident. Promises are made to be broken.

Remind me again, which candidate shares Oklahoma values?

Video Diary

2008-11-02T13:39:00.002-06:00

Obama Congratulates McCain on Cheney Endorsement

I know here in Oklahoma we don't get much of a chance to see presidential commercials, so I've included Obama's new endorsement commercial below:

Democrats on Economics

2008-11-02T05:03:00.002-06:00

Since there's no early voting today, I finally have enough of a breather to do something I've been meaning to do for quite a while: inject some facts into the presidential race. A big thanks goes to Brad DeLong for compiling all the pretty graphics for me.

Since John McCain's entire economic plan centers around earmarks, let's start with those. Everyone agrees that the Federal Budget is out of control. So how much good is he liable to do for us by concentrating on earmarks?

Some of you might have to go get your glasses to make out that blue sliver at the top labeled "Earmarks". Is McCain really planning on wasting effort trying to shrink that tiny sliver, or is he just lying to everyone? I almost hope it's the latter, and that's sad.

Democrats are Better Democrats
The traditional Democratic economic goals have always been increasing jobs and economic fairness. How have they done in reality?

Note how in every graph the Democrats are at the top and the Republicans are at the bottom. The only exception is the Roosevelt/Truman cycle, where all our drafted soldiers from WWII came back into the job market at once.

Democrats Are Better Republicans
Republicans, on the other hand, have traditionally sold themselves as the folks who will control the budget deficit, increase the Gross Domestic Product, and be better for the stock market. What has the truth been?

Once again, the Democrats tend to all be clustered at the top, and the Republicans at the bottom. The exceptions for the Democrats again seem to mostly be WWII related. The Republicans would look far worse if not for Eisenhower. He was a popular General drafted into the Republican party before anyone really knew his politics, very much like Colin Powell.

How is it, one might ask, that Democrats do better on Republican goals, when in theory the are concentrating on their own goals? Perhaps it is as Obama keeps saying: businesses do better when they have more customers who can afford their services.

Whatever the reason, the results are pretty clear. When it comes to economics, if your priorities lean Democratic, you should vote for Democrats. If your priorities lean Republican, you should still vote for Democrats.

McCain and Friends

2008-11-01T10:14:00.001-05:00

Early Voting - Day 2

2008-11-01T06:41:00.006-05:00

Today is the second day of early voting in Oklahoma. This is the same deal as yesterday with one exception: Polls close at one PM today. So get up a bit early to vote today.

According to reports, there were long lines and congestion at the polls yesterday, but the lines moved very quickly. Although the wait in some places around OKC was quite long, here in Tulsa it was only about 45 minutes.

One of my fellow denziens on SoonerKos who lives in the area reported that parking was a real issue. He suggested:

If you plan on going to The Election Board be prepared to park a couple of blocks away and walk. There is plenty of street parking on Denver or Cheyenne in The Brady Heights Historic District. There was a very long line of cars waiting to park at the Election Building so to help ease congestion come in from the north and park at one of the Churches or on the street.

Also, remember no campaign gear is allowed. Be considerate and bring a coat or sweater to share with any of your neighbors who didn't get the message.

The reports I got were that roughly 5,000 people voted yesterday in Oklahoma County (OKC) and 4,000 in Tulsa County.

Attack of the Robots

2008-10-31T20:10:00.002-05:00

From the Obama youtube channel:

More Early Voting

2008-10-31T12:23:00.004-05:00

I've seen reports from both Tulsa and Oklahoma City that early voting lines are quite long, but manageable. In both cases the lines are snaking out around the board of election parking lot. However, reports are that the lines move fast. Wait time in OKC this morning was about an hour, and in Tulsa 45 minutes.

Make sure you budget yourself the proper amount of time, but please get out and vote as soon as you can.

First Day of Early Voting

2008-10-31T06:07:00.002-05:00

Today is the first day of early voting. Just come on down to your County Election Board offices (see my previous post for directions) between the hours of 8AM and 6PM. For Tulsa County voters that is 555 N. Devner, in downtown Tulsa.

One thing I neglected to mention is that state law prohibits you from entering the polling place wearing any candidate supporting materials. So leave your Obama buttons and shirts at home, or put on a sweater over them. I'd like to ask everyone to bring an extra sweater or jacket to lend in case one of your neighbors in line did not realize this. Some of them might object to voting topless.

If you can't come in today, there is also early voting Saturday and Monday. Please try to vote early this year. The line will probably be shorter, and it will help prevent polling place directed shenanigans from taking your vote away.

Obama Visit
We weren't successful in securing an Obama visit to Tulsa this cycle. However, he will be visting Springfield MO tomorrow night. That's about a 3 hour drive from Tulsa. So if you are up for that kind of road trip, check out the info here. I checked out the venue and it seats about 8,000.

Obamathon

2008-10-30T20:26:00.001-05:00

In case you missed it (like you were stuck in a closet last night or something), here's Obama's infomercial

Tomorrow - First Day of Voting

2008-10-30T06:40:00.002-05:00

If you missed yesterday's deadline to request an Absentee Ballot, than you are going to have to go vote the old-fashioned way: in person.

The good news is that the first day you can do that is not November 4, but rather tomorrow, October 31. That is the first day of early voting in Oklahoma. The other days are Saturday, November 1, and Monday November 3 (the day before the general election).

Early Voting does work a bit differently than regular voting. You do not go to your normal polling place. Instead you must show up at your County Election Board sometime between 8AM and 6PM. The Tulsa area election board offices are:

Tulsa County: 555 N Devner Avenue.
View Larger Map

Osage County: 630 Kihekah Ave., Pawhuska

View Larger Map

Creek County - 230 E. Hobson Ave., Sapulpa

View Larger Map

Rodgers County - 216 S. Missouri Ave., Claremore

View Larger Map

Wagoner County - 208 N Lee Ave., Wagoner

View Larger Map

There is no guarantee that the lines won't be as long on early voting days as they will be for the general election, so budget yourself an hour or so, particularly in Tulsa County. However, if one of these days is better for you than Tuesday, this is when you want to vote.

I sent in my absentee ballot yesterday, so I can tell you from experience that getting the actual voting behind you removes a bit of the stress. So vote early if you can.

Obama Admission

2008-10-29T18:30:00.002-05:00

This just in: Obama admits to sharing his toys in Kindergarten.

Absentee - Last Day

2008-10-29T07:08:00.004-05:00

This is the last day you can request an Absentee ballot in Oklahoma. We are requesting that everyone vote this way this year, in order to free up line space. This will be particularly important for working folk, those with small children, and those who can't stand in line for hours due to physical infirmity. However, the request needs to be in your county election board's hands today!

Download and print out the request from from the state board of elections website.
Complete the form, and fax it in (or hand-carry it) to your county board of elections. The area Fax numbers are.

Tulsa County - 596-5775 (Closes at 5PM)

Osage County - 587-4820 (Closes at 4PM)

Creek County - 227-6332 (Closes at 5PM)

Rodgers County - 341-4666 (Closes at 5PM)

Wagoner County - 485-8063 (Closes at 4:30PM)

A couple of days after you do this, you will receive your ballots in the mail. Mrs. Mule and I both have already received our ballots and marked them. I'm sending mine in today, and hers goes in Friday.

Charles

2008-10-28T19:28:00.002-05:00

I just saw this really neat video on Kos.

Electoral College Update

2008-10-28T06:53:00.002-05:00

It has been more than a week again since I last went over this. News has just been too heavy to have time to revisit the Electoral College since then. Obviously that isn't going to happen again this cycle though. So from now until this time next week I'll try to put the FiveThirtyEight map at the top of all the morning posts.

There has been even more talk about tightening in the general election polling. For example, Gallup shows Obama's lead down to 5 points with a week to go.

What you don't seem to hear as much is that when you split the polls by state and look at the electoral college counts, Obama's lead is not narrowing. Pollster has it at 306(315) to 142(157), Rasmussen has it at 313(305) to 174(174) and CNN now has it at 277 to 174 (same). (Last report's numbers in parentheses). The statistics-based site FiveThirtyEight is actually seeing Obama's lead starting to widen. He now places it at 351.1(343.9) to 186.9(186.9).

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:

If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.

Yes, you saw that right, Oklahoma is moving in Obama's direction. Here's the pollster graph.

It's still pretty far away from being competitive. However, there's a week left for it to keep going that direction, and I personally think this state is liable to be greatly affected by both new voters and a strong Reverse Bradley effect come election day. Something amazing could very well happen here.

In order to help this process along, I'd like to request everyone please request an absentee ballot today. This is the last day, so I highly suggest you either fax in your request, or hand-carry it to the office.

Obama's Closing Argument

2008-10-27T18:30:00.001-05:00

Delivered Today in Canton, OH.

Apply Today

2008-10-27T06:56:00.002-05:00

You only have until Wednesday to apply for an absentee ballot. The form can be downloaded from the Oklahoma State Election Board's website. Fill it out and fax it in to your county Election Board office (for Tulsa County: 596-4536).

Lines are expected to be extremely long this year. This means voting absentee is your easiest way to amplify your vote. Not only does it ensure that you will have the time to vote, but it makes the line at your polling place a smidgen shorter, which may make the difference in someone else having a chance to vote.

Myself and Mrs. Skinner faxed in our applications on Thursday and Friday respectively. We both received our ballots on Saturday. Another nice benefit of voting this way is that we get a chance to do research on the little-publicized down-ticket items on the ballot (such as judges and state questions) from the comfort of our own home, rather than in a polling place full of people with impatient multitudes waiting on us to get done.

One thing I should warn you about is that when you get your ballots mailed to you you will need a couple of things to complete them: A number 2 pencil (just like being back in school) and a Notary Public. The pencil shouldn't be tough for anyone. Notary publics can be found at most banks and car dealerships. If you work at an office, there is probably one there too. Ask your head secretary. By law, Notaries cannot charge you anything for notarizing a ballot.

Missed Opportunity

2008-10-26T07:59:00.005-05:00

Today Barack goes back on the campaign trail after taking a couple of days off to visit his gravely ill grandmother.

Those two days represented a great opportunity to the McCain campaign. Late in the election they had two precious days where they would have the news media essentially to themselves. They could get their message out with no real competition, perhaps even seize the initiative in the campaign finally. Friday in particular was crucial, as more people are generally paying attention on weekdays. This was a rare and precious gift.

So how did they use their time alone in the spotlight? To make themselves look foolish. Here's an abbreviated list of what the media reported the McCain campaign doing on Friday.

Reports that their VP spent $150,000 of campaign funds on clothes.

Reports that their highest paid staffer is their VP's hairstylist

Their VP testified to a grand jury looking into her abuse of power.

Their VP gave a speech outlining her support for "special needs" children and their families (good thing) while taking a swipe at research into the causes of autism (WTF?). In the same speech! Usually politicians at least make you hunt around a bit to find their hypocrisy.

Their Ohio campaign faked a racial incident and got caught.

Bush's press secretary for nearly half of his administration endorsed Obama.

A lot of talk about Obama being way ahead in the polls.

All kinds of stories about supporters dumping on the campaign, the candidates, Bush, the party in general, etc.

Stories about the VP herself dumping on the campaign.

To give you some idea of the condensed effect of all this, check out this video from Talkingpointsmemo; October 24, 2008: The Day in More Than 100 Seconds:

The really sad part about this is that the boobs running this horrible campaign could indeed still win. Could you imagine the country being run this way?

Remeber, one of the best things you can do right now is request an absentee ballot. Fill out the form and fax it in today.

Wassup Now

2008-10-25T15:52:00.002-05:00

Ever wonder what happened to those dudes from the old Budwiser "wassup" commercial?

Well, me neither. But I'm going to show you anyway. It turns out that the Bush years were not kind to them.

Fox Admits Defeat

2008-10-25T13:22:00.002-05:00

Well, of course they didn't do it directly. Being up front and honest about these things just isn't in their nature.

I won't go into the details of the B hoax here, as I get so upset about it I'd have trouble coming back. If you want to read the story, click the link.

However when the McCain campaign, and then Fox and Drudge gleefully starting spreading this evil racial lie around, the chairman of Fox wrote the following:

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

...and of course it turned out to be a hoax.

So there you have it. Even Fox has now admitted that McCain's campaign has been "race-baiting", and that their campaign is over.

Some folks may look at this latest action of the McCain campaign as pathetic, which it is. However, I put it to you that we here in Tulsa don't have the luxury of laughing it off. False accusations of black men assaulting white women is nothing new in this country, and sadly not in this city. When the campaign embarked on this road, they may have thought that it headed in a useful direction. But we here in Tulsa know what the view down at the end of this road looks like:

We all know what the McCain race-baiting tactics are. They are not "just politics". They are not even "dirty tricks". They are evil. As we love our children, our City, our Country, and our God, we are called on to fight it.

Talk to your friends and relatives about this. Also, request your absentee ballot today. Remember that every absentee vote is potentially 2 votes for Obama.

Sitcoms for Obama

2008-10-24T23:24:00.002-05:00

Calvin Rees at Demokie found several great Obama related videos. I'm probably going to feel compelled to show 3 of them here at some point, but here's the first.

If you are under 40, I'm not sure how much this is going to mean to you...

My 13yo at least recognized the Fonz; I think from the Family Guy references.

Vote Absentee

2008-10-24T07:31:00.003-05:00

Just a reminder that everyone reading this need to submit your request for an absentee ballot Today! It needs to be in the hands of the County Election Board by Wednesday. Also get everyone you know to do the same. Remember that every vote cast for Obama by mail this year is potentially two votes for him; the one you send in and the one someone else will get a chance to cast on Tuesday because you shortened the line by one more person.

My instructions for the process are here. Please email the link to everyone you know.

Electoral College Update

2008-10-24T06:59:00.002-05:00

I know I just did this back on Monday, but we are getting down to the wire here, and things actually are changing.

There has been a lot of the talk in the media about "tightening", and it is showing up in most of the electoral college counting polls. However, everyone still has Obama past the number of votes needed to win. To give you a sense of the direction and speed of things, I'll use the common shorthand of putting Monday's numbers in parentheses. Remember that a presidential win requires 270 electoral votes.

Pollster shows some tighening with Obama at 306(315) electoral vote to 157(157) for McCain. Rasmussen also shows it slightly tightened to 286(305) to 174(174). CNN is unchanged (perhaps unupdated) at 277(277) to 174(174). The statistical site FiveThirtyEight on the other hand has Obama's lead growing to 354.4(343.9) to 183.6(194.1). Note that these electoral counts tend to follow behind poll trends by several days. FiveThirtyEight mostly doesn't have that problem, as he reanalyzes polling numbers every day as they come in. That's probably the reason his is going a different direction, although it could also be due to the fact that he doesn't leave any state out as a "tossup".

Absentee

2008-10-23T07:09:00.005-05:00

Yesterday the Tulsa County election board sent out a plea for absentee voters. They are expecting turnout so heavy this year that voting may actually be a serious hardship for many people. Given that, I'd like to request that everyone reading this blog register and vote absentee this year.

Just yesterday I requested an absentee ballot myself. Here's what you do:

Get an absentee ballot request form.

The easiest way is to download it from the state's website, but forms are also available at your county election board (555 N Denver for Tulsa County). Our headquarters at 3930 East 31 Street should also have the forms.

For most people, the form you need is this one. Click the link and print it out now.

If you are "physically incapacitated", or are the caregiver for someone who is, they request you use this form instead.

Get Your Registration Info

To help in this process, I suggest you go to the state's polling place locator website to find your registration information. Fill out the blanks, hit the "Search" button, and you should be presented with your registered name and your voter ID.

If the search does not turn up your registration information, move on to the next step without it and try to do the rest as best you can. However, after you have sent in your request, I highly suggest you call your local election board and verify your registration.

Fill Out the Form

You will need to fill in the following information:

Your Name as it appears on your registration

Your Address as it appears on your registration

The name of the School District or Board of Education district in which you live. Sadly, this information is probably not on your registration record, so you just have to know this. For the Tulsa area it's probably something like "Tulsa", or "Jenks", or "Union", etc.

The town or "Ward" you live in.

Mark a box and fill in a date for which election(s) you want ballots for.
To make things simple, I just marked the last box next to "all elections for which I am eligible during calendar year", and filled in the blank to read "2008". This will probably be the only remaining election this year. If you'd like to do this again for future elections, I'd suggest submitting another form to do so later.
Fill in the address you would like your ballot mailed to. This can be different than your registered address.

Sign it

That's it!

Send it In

Once it is all filled out properly, you need to send the application to your county's board of election office. For Tulsa County that would be by mail (or walk-in) to 55 N Denver, Tulsa 74103-1014. You can also fax the completed for in to their fax number, which for Tulsa County is 596-4536. That is the way I did it yesterday.

Deadline

You must have all of this done and the request must be in their hands at the county office no later than next Wednesday, the 29th.

I cannot stress enough how important doing this is. Just you alone doing this will not only will it make it easier for you to vote (+1 vote for Obama there), but it will also possibly allow one more person who walks in on election day to vote, rather than having to leave in frustration. The people who are going to have the toughest time with the lines are going to be the working poor, the infirm, and those with small children and no secondary caregivers. All of those groups are largely democratic. So every person who votes absentee is potentially 2 votes for Obama that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Plea from the Election Board

2008-10-22T08:08:00.002-05:00

I was just forwarded this from Greg:

Employees at the election board implored me to get the word out to as many as possible that everyone should try to vote absentee. Even in early voting they are expecting very long lines and wait times. They noted that the elderly and disabled will not be able to stand in line for an hour or more.

Voting Info pt. 2

2008-10-22T07:04:00.003-05:00

Yesterday I gave out some information to help prepare you to vote. So now that you presumably know what you are going to to, the next question is when.

The obvious answer is election day, Tuesday November 4th. On that day you can show up at your polling place any time between 7AM and 7PM.

However, we expect turnout for this election to be huge. Even in the last election, I ended up in a large line that took me half an hour to get through in the morning. This year, I'd say budget an hour, and be prepared to excuse yourself from anything else you might miss if it takes longer. If you try to show up at 5:30 after you get off of work, I wouldn't expect to be out of there before 7.

Don't let this deter you though! I don't care what else you think you are doing that day, you won't do anything more important. If you are worried about your job, don't. By Oklahoma law your employer must give you time off to vote. In fact, under some circumstances it must be paid time off. If you absolutely can't stand this happening on Tuesday though, there are other options.

Absentee Voting
If you don't want worry about waiting all that time, you do have other options. The first is to vote absentee. To do this, print out this form, fill it in, get it notarized, then get it to your county election board. You'll need to write down the address of your polling place, which again can be found here. I'd suggest hand-carrying it there rather than mailing it, as they have to receive it by the 29th of October. If want to mail it in, do so soon! That's only a week from today. You will need it notarized, and your county board is likely to have a notary there or nearby. Any nearby lawyer's office, real-estate agent's office, or car dealer will have a notary too.

Early Voting

Your second option is to vote early. To do this simply show up at the county election board office of the county in which you are registered to vote. For Tulsa County this is 555 N Denver in downtown Tulsa. For other counties you can find the address of your office here. If you live in one of those counties (eg: Osage) for which only a P.O. box is listed, you will need to call the office during business hours to find out the address to show up for early voting. The times and dates of early voting are:

Friday, October 31, 8 AM - 6 PM

Saturday, November 1, 8 AM - 1 PM

Monday, November 3, 8 AM - 6 PM

This is the option we at the campaign are suggesting everyone take, if the travel distance isn't too much of a hardship on you. I know that some folks in northwest Tulsa actually dwell in Osage county, the seat of which is more than an hour's drive away (and through some territory which has not historically been overly friendly to those of us blessed with an abundance of melanin). Even then, if you can't easily squeeze in a 2 hour wait at the polls on Tuesday, a 2 hour round trip on Saturday may be just the thing for you.

Late Voting

There is no such thing as late voting! This is something Repubs like to spread around poor communities before elections to try to trick people into missing the deadline on Tuesday. If you hear or see someone talking about this, you are being lied to.

This is probably the most important election any of us will ever see. Make sure you are a part of it, whatever it takes.

Voting Info

2008-10-21T07:03:00.004-05:00

With less than two weeks left until the election, I'd like to go over some voting information with everyone.

First off, to verify that you are registered to vote (and that you know where to show up to vote), you should visit the state election board's Polling Place Locator. You will need to enter your last name, birthdate, and zipcode, and it will show your voter ID number. Click on that to see the address of your polling place, and what voting districts you are in. I highly suggest everyone do this! Polling places change from time to time. Also, make note of your precinct number from this page. You'll need it for the next step.

Next, I suggest you take a look at your ballot now. This will allow you to figure out now, while you aren't under time pressures and surrounded by impatient people, what you need to mark where. Also, there may be some people or things on there you don't know about yet. Better to find out now while you can still educate yourself.

To do this, visit the website for your county election board. In Tulsa county you would go to http://www.tulsacounty.org/Nov42008Ballot.asp. This page has a table mapping the last three digits of precinct numbers to actual pictures of your ballot. Scroll down the page and look for yours.

For each precinct there are two links; one for the ballot for the State and County general election, and one for the City of Tulsa ballot. When you go, I believe they may actually be printed on opposite sides of the same ballot, so make sure to check the back side of your ballot!

The City of Tulsa ballot appears to only have a couple of propositions on it. please do take the time to educate yourself on them, but they are outside of the scope of this campaign. What we care about is the State and County general election ballot.

When you click on that ballot, what you should see is three columns of candidates. Next to each candidate you will see a horizontal arrow pointing to the left, with a big gap in the middle, like in the picture to the right. To select a candidate, you fill in the gap in the arrow next to his or her name.

What I would suggest is that you look for all the grey boxes on your ballot that contain headings. On mine they are labeled PRESIDENTIAL, STATE OFFICERS, CONGRESSIONAL OFFICERS, and LEGISLATIVE AND COUNTY OFFICERS. Under each of those headings will be a box labeled STRAIGHT PARTY VOTING. My suggestion is that you fill in the arrow next to DEMOCRATIC in each of these. You don't have to make any other selections on this side of this ballot if you do that. (In fact, I'd suggest you don't. It might confuse the machines).

The result should look something like what you see to the right.

If you vote straight party like this, you do not need to vote for individual candidates as well. Simply fill out those four headings, and you are done!

Now if you have philosophical problems with voting straight-party, I understand. I've often myself avoided that out of principle, even though everybody I voted for was a Democrat. However, this is the easy way to fill out your ballot and be done with it. Otherwise you will need to read the ballot carefully, and make a selection in every box *except* the straight-party voting boxes. There are lots of variants to the ballots so I can't give direction from here.

Tomorrow I'll try to go over early voting in Oklahoma.

Electoral College Update

2008-10-20T07:02:00.002-05:00

With the final voter registration push and all the other news to cover, it's been more than three weeks since my last polling update.

In the popularity polls, Obama has since widened his lead considerably. Since I presented the Gallup graphic last time, I'll use the update here. For reference, our last check had him at the %49 mark on the chart.

Of course the electoral votes are what really matter. When last we checked, Obama was hovering just about 20 to 40 votes under the magic number of 270, while McCain was in the neighborhood of 200. Since then Obama's blown by the magic number of 270, and even past 300 by most reckonings. McCain has slipped down to 150 territory. Pollster has them at 315 to 157, with an additional 68 votes up for grabs in tossup states. Rasmussen has it at 305 to 174, and CNN 277 to 174. FiveThirtyEight (which sadly I didn't know about a month ago), using a statistical method to distribute the tossups, has it at 343.9 to 194.1.

Powell to the People

2008-10-19T08:30:00.003-05:00

I just finished watching Colin Powell endorse Barack Obama.

The main thing to know about Colin Powell is that he got where he got in life through his service in the Army, and army values are his values. This means you defend those who can't protect themselves and that you ultimately serve the American people. This is why he is so respected in this country. He also believed in deferring to will of your superiors, and finding and following patrons who can get you ahead. This is what got him to the top in the military, but got him into trouble after he left the Army.

Colin Powell is, like Barack, a child of immigrants who grew up in occasional poverty. In Colin's case, both his parents were from Jamaica, and he grew up in the Bronx. He worked his way up from the bottom of the officer corps in the Army clear to General and eventual Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A lot of folks in the Army, particularly the african-american enlistees, held the man in awe. I remember a video of one poor guy who was meeting Colin at the airfield and looked like he was so nervous he close to passing out.

After he retired there was a lot of pressure on him to "come out" as a republican. At the time they were making a big effort to recruit African-Americans in an attempt to whitewash over their party's unsupportive stances on minority issues. It was pretty clear the Reps had all kinds of great leadership positions lined up for him. My impression at the time was that the main problem was that the guy was just not a Republican.

Sure enough, when he finally did make a statement about it, he said that if he were to be a Republican, it would be a Rockefeller Republican. For those of you who aren't fluent in policialesse, that means as a liberal. This one statement immediately cooled the ardor of the religious right, but the pragmatic libertarian wing of the party still wanted him and his credibility for their whitewashing campaign. So into the Republican fold he came, but with a set of enemies already. Even his patrons felt like he was more of a useful tool than someone to actually be listened to.

Eventually he met the fate of all who the Republican rulers see as useful tools; he was used up and thrown away. Knowing he was the one person in their administration who had any credibility (eg: was known not to lie), they sent Colin up to the UN with their pack of lies about Iraq having WMD's. Of course as soon as the lies were exposed, Colin didn't have any more credibility, so he was no longer useful to the Bush administration. Plus he had an annoying habit of showing scruples, and trying to talk people out of the various stupid ideas the administration had (eg: Unconstitutional jalings, Torture, etc.). So out he went.

I really do feel sorry for the guy, but as we say here in Oklahoma, if you lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas.

Anyway, after watching him for a half an hour, he's still the same guy. Admirably principled, dedicated, thoughtful, but reticent about saying quite what needs to be said about his former superiors. He came close, but did not quite say that "Compassionate Conservatisim" was a failure. He didn't even hint at what everyone on boths sides knows, that it was never anything more than a marketing slogan.

However he spent several minutes in a passionate defense of Muslim Americans. Many people have not quite caught on that the "Obama is a Muslim" whisper campaign is in a way more of a slander against Muslim Americans than against Barack. This is something I've been trying to say for some time, but never with that kind of eloquence or effectiveness. It was enough to make me tear up. This is something he did not have to do with his time this morning. However, they certainly need defending. He saw that and he stepped up and did it on the biggest platform he could get himself. That, if nothing else, should tell you about the character of Colin Powell.

So there you have it. Colin Powell; American hero, flawed warrior, and Barack Obama supporter.

Down Ticket

2008-10-17T22:08:00.002-05:00

Lately I've been seeing a lot of Lantos State Representative signs popping up in my neighborhood like mushrooms. It has been kind of in the back of my head to figure out what that's about for a while.

Well, one unexpected surprise from the debate watch party was that Sebastian Lantos himself showed up. Turns out he's running for state house in district 67, which is of course my district. This is not an easy district for a Democrat. It's a bit more than 3 to 1 Republican. So really I should be thankful that I simply have someone to vote for.

However, this isn't just someone who threw his name up as the sacrificial lamb this cycle. Lantos is an energetic small business owner who is working his tail off to win this election. After meeting him, I don't think the man is capable of doing a half-assed job at anything. He'd been campaigning since the morning, and had been up late the night before studying issues in preparation for the morning event. He was complaining a bit about being tired after all that, but he did so with a smile on his face. He clearly had more energy left at that point (pushing 11PM) than I did. Just think what someone like that could accomplish for us in the state house! He's also the current president of the Coalition of Hispanic Organizations. What else? Oh yeah..he's been endorsed by The World.

I'll be proud to mark my ballot for him. Win or lose, I hope to see a lot more of Sebastian Lantos in the future.

Oliver!

Moving up the ticket a bit, Georgiana Oliver is running to replace John Sullivan. She's trying to run a bit to the Right, so she isn't exactly a lot of folks' ideal Democrat. However, John Sullivan is just odious. He franks our house regularly with the most hateful mailers imaginable on the taxpayer's dime. If for no other reason than to save the taxpayer a buck or two and make my own house more peaceful, please vote this far-right clown out of office.

Rice-a-roni

Andrew Rice made a bit of news recently, thanks to some vastly improved polling numbers.

This still leaves him a bit over 10 points behind, but the momentum seems to be in his favor big time. I hope everyone reading this will do whatever they can to keep it going to election day.

Inhofe is widely regarded as the United States' worst senator. The stupid crap he says occasionally makes international news. We have the chance to do ourselves, our families, our state, our country, and our world a great service all a once by sending Andrew Rice to take his place as our next senator.

Volunteer Opportunities

2008-10-17T06:51:00.003-05:00

We are now entering the part of the race where canvassing, going out and talking to voters, is most important. If you'd like to help us with this effort, please contact Mary-Jo via email or at 269-4400. Training will be provided. If nothing else, this is a great way to meet your neighbors.

Volunteers are also requested to help assemble Obama signs at the Transport Worker's Union during the day and on Saturdays and Sundays. Call 361-8384 to help. The activity goes on at the union's print shop, which is in a couple of sheds behind the offices at 11945 E. Pine.

If your free time is hard to come by, one thing you can do is just stake out a busy intersection when you do have time and hold up Obama signs and wave to cars. Obviously this would be most effective during rush hour, but this could really be done anytime during daylight hours.

We will also need drivers to get people to the polls, both for the early (absentee) voting on October 31st, November 1st and second, and for election day itself on the fourth. If you are interested, again contact Mary Jo via email or at 269-4400.

Also, CWA Local 6012 will be phone banking from now until the 24th. If you are interested in helping, please contact Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662.

Debate Wrapup

2008-10-16T06:58:00.002-05:00

The final debate of the campaign is over. If you are wondering how it went, the picture here can be considered representative. It was a whole evening of Obama being cool and reasonable and McCain being snippy, erratic, awkward and unreasonable.

McCain had some bizarre fixation with "Joe the Plumber" which put Obama in danger of cracking up at various times. At one point, just to humor McCain, Obama looked straight in the camera and talked to "Joe".

McCain also would jump to attacks in his responses that were complete non-sequiturs. It reminded me a lot of certain no-win arguments I've had with my spouse back in less happy days. McCain had better hope I'm alone in that association.

Interestingly, the two best zingers of the night came not from either candidate's answers, but from moderator Bob Schieffer's questions.
Zinger 1:

... Are each of you tonight willing to sit at this table and say to each other's face what your campaigns and the people in your campaigns have said about each other?

Zinger 2:

I want to ask both of you about the people that you're going to bring into the government, and our best insight yet is who you have picked as your running mates.

So I'll begin by asking both of you this question, and I'll ask you to answer first, Sen. Obama. Why would the country be better off if your running mate became president rather than his running mate?

The instapolls show a huge win for Obama, in the %30 point range with general viewers and the %40 point range among independents. Suffice it to say that I don't think McCain got the game changer he needed out of this debate.

The Problem with Polls

2008-10-15T06:51:00.002-05:00

Yesterday I went over Oklahoma's (atrocious) poll numbers. However, there are several reasons why polls may be unusually hard to get accurate this cycle. First the negative.

The Bradley Effect.
Named after Tom Bradley, former mayor of L.A. When he ran for Governor of California in 1982 polls had him ahead, but he ended up losing. The theory behind this is that when an African-American is running, people may not want to look like bigots to the cute young pollster asking them questions, so many of them lie. This idea got resurrected this cycle when Hillary came from behind to win New Hampshire.

Even though this theory is eye-catching, it is actually quite controversial among pollsters. They looked hard for a Bradley Effect in later races in various states, and could find no evidence of it. Today is not 1982, and many pollsters claim that the effect has diminished over time. Some even claim it never existed in the first place.

GOP Voter Suppression
When you take a bunch of people who either have no moral scruples in the first place, or feel that they are fighting on the side of God, and put them in a situation where it looks like they are losing, it isn't tough to imagine them doing some unsavory and/or downright illegal things. In other words, they will try to cheat. I'm not saying all Republicans are like this. However, it only takes a few. This is a party that destroyed America's anti-torture principles, which date back to the founding struggle of this country, simply for some imagined expedience. Don't think those same folks will blanch one bit at taking the vote away from some poor people.

However, the GOP is, if nothing else, a party that respects authority. Their best efforts are always directed top-down, and frankly they aren't going to waste them on what looks to be one of their safer states. I expect to see a lot of shenanigans in the next 3 weeks, but I expect them mostly to be directed at blue and swing states. That doesn't mean we won't get some rogues doing caging, but I don't expect it to have a significant effect. I hope I'm right.

Now for the positive:

New Registrations
There have been a huge surge in voter registrations all across the country this cycle, and Oklahoma is no exception. The vast majority of these new registrations are for Democrats.

Unlikely Voters
The polls at this point are all weighted to "likely voters". That means that if you aren't in a demographic group that has historically voted in Oklahoma in past elections, they won't count your answers in the polls as strongly. However, this is definitively not a normal election. People who haven't voted in ages are expected to come out. Since Republicans are generally reliable voters, this effect can only skew Democratic.

Reverse Bradley Effect
Pollsters have actually noticed that Barak Obama has a kind of Bradley Effect in reverse in any state that has a significant African American community. Oklahoma's is about 8%. We are also about 8% native-american and %7 hispanic, both communities that are trending overwhelmingly Obama's way this cycle.

Ground Game
The Democratic get-out-the-vote ground efforts have always been rather shabby compared to what our opponents had to offer. We are doing our best to change that in this state. We still aren't anywhere near where we should be, but we are getting better. This is going to be the big X-factor in this campaign.

This is also where you come in. Don't just sit on your butt this year and exepect your one vote to work its magic. If you love Oklahoma, get out and fight for it. Democratic HQ is at 3930 East 31 Street, and I'm but an email away.

Debate Tonight
The last debate is tonight. That means the last debate watch party at the Circle Cinema Quad this evening starting at 7. See you there.

The Bad News

2008-10-14T07:02:00.006-05:00

After all the good polling news I've been reporting, I think I'd be remiss in not also spending some time talking about the bad. Namely Oklahoma's numbers. They aren't just bad, they are crappy. The trend isn't even particularly good.

The two sharp angles there are I believe the Republican convention (and Palin pick), and the start of the bank bailout crisis. Notice how the crisis didn't actually turn McCain's number around, it just stopped his growth.

If you look at these numbers, they put us in the rarefied territory of only two other "red" states: Utah and Idaho (%29.6 and %29.5 Obama respectively). This is why a lot of the area Obama campaigns (but not us!) are asking area volunteers to abandon Oklahoma and drive to Missouri or Colorado to help out there.

Utah and Idaho have a several things in common. They are both very sparsely populated states. They are very isolated states, cut off from this country's major population centers by rugged mountain ranges and vast distances. They are monocultural. Idaho is %97 white. Utah is %95 white and %60 Mormon. Oklahoma doesn't really look much like those states at all, so why is it polling like them?

One of the main reasons is that, while we have large native and african-american minorities in this state, they historically don't vote. All of these polls are skewed by "likely voter" weightings. Thus no matter how strongly that quarter of the state feels about a candidate, it isn't going to show up in the polls.

The problem with this logic is that this is simply not a typical election. Tomorrow I'll go over that in more detail, and why we have hope and should keep fighting for Oklahoma.

Debate

Don't forget the debate watch party tomorrow night. If you aren't hosting or attending one in your neighborhood, meet us at the Circle Quad.

Volunteers Needed

2008-10-13T06:37:00.003-05:00

We have moved into penultimate phase of the campaign, and now have a great need for reliable volunteers. Our main areas of need are:

Canvassing - We need to identify our voters, particularly those in need of help getting to the polls, in several key districts in Tulsa. This is a good task for those who have large blocks of time available to help.
Sign Crews - We need to make Tulsa effectively one large Obama/Biden billboard. This is a good job for those with perhaps a bit less time on their hands, but access to a car and willing to drive it all over town.
Boo-ha-ha - Come march with us (and our dogs) in the Brookside Boo-ha-ha parade on the afternoon of October 25th. This is an important visibility event for us.
Financial - The signs are not free, and are not being sponsored by the national campaign either. They cost us a bit more than a dollar each for the small ones, and $5-7 for the large ones. If you can't help out any other way, you should at least be able to help this way.
Your yard - Don't forget to stop by HQ (3930 East 31 Street) and pick up signs for your yard. It is suggested you keep some spare Obama signs in your home, to account for lossage.

If you can help out with any of this, please contact either me or Greg or Stephanie.

Other opportunities:

Making Signs - Most of our signage (and a lot of it for nearby "battleground" states) is being made at the local Transport Workers Union sign shop. This is all volunteer work. If you have some free time between 8AM and 6PM you can help, contact the shop at 438-8122 or 361-8384.
Letters to the editor - The Tulsa World has been very good about printing the pro-Obama letters that reach them. We need to keep them coming in. This is a good task for those of you that may not have a lot of free time during "normal" hours (eg: those with young kids), or those with special skills in writing.
HQ Donations - Tulsa County Democratic Headquarters is looking for donations of the following items:
- Political Books for the library
- Bottled Water
- Color Copier
- Desktop Computer
- Laptop Computer
- Old Campaign Buttons/Bumper-stickers
- Paper Towels
- Stamps
- Storage shed

Exclusive

2008-10-12T09:13:00.006-05:00

The McCain/Palin campaign has hired new cartoon outreach coordinator, Hanover Fiste, to carry their message about Obama to the animated world. We have here an exclusive video of some of his past work.

Representative John Lewis, who fought on the front lines of the Civil Rights movement in the 50's and 60's, has compared the republican's campaign to the behavior of George Wallace. The Obama campaign denounced the comments, but a lot of people think Rep. Lewis was dead on.

Update
I particularly liked this line of his:

As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Governor Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all.

Ding Ding Ding

2008-10-11T10:23:00.003-05:00

The registration deadline for the general election has now passed. I know we would have all liked to have done more, or turned more in, but it looks like we did pretty damn well as it was. The World reported that Tulsa County received nearly 7000 registrations last week. This is not counting yesterday, when they were also very busy, and is also not counting the mailed in applications they will be getting over the next couple of days. Great job everyone!

Notice in the comments at the bottom of that article how the Reps are already whining that all of these registrations are fraudulent. Expect much more of this to come. The thought of hordes of usually-silent poor people actually voting has them scared out of their minds.

Dumpster Diving
Today being Saturday, let's see what was placed in the Friday news dump.
*shuffle* *shuffle*
Oooh. Look at this...

AP:

After a lengthy investigation lawmakers in Alaska have concluded that Governor Sarah Palin did in fact abuse her authority when she fired the state's Public Safety Commissoner

Palin turns out to be not just ethically-challenged, but reality-challenged as well. From CNN:

"If you read the report, you will see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about replacing a cabinet member," Palin said.
...
Palin violated state ethics law by trying to get her former brother-in-law fired from the state police, a state investigator's report for the bipartisan Legislative Council concluded Friday.

The funny thing is that the Republicans knew this investigation was coming when they nominated her. I guess after eight years of Cheney they felt like the position of VP requires someone ethically-challenged. Still it does say good things for them that they had to go clear to Alaska to find someone with the requisite lack of scruples for the job.

Last Day to Register

2008-10-10T07:04:00.002-05:00

Voter registration applications must be either postmarked or turned into your county election board office by midnight tonight. The Tulsa County Election board will be open until midnight to take last-minute applications.

As of now I don't know of anything scheduled, but if I know Mary Jo and Blanca, they will be out at their favorite haunts tonight registering voters, so contact them if you want to help. Failing that, I'd suggest hitting your nearest high-traffic bus stop. Registration forms are available at the state's website. If you have time, we'd appreciate you dropping them off at Democratic Headquarters (between Harvard and Yale on 31st), so we can keep track of them.

Stephanie at the office tells me that we have turned in over a thousand so far.

Also, make sure everyone you know (particularly anyone who has moved recently) verifies their registration today while they still have a chance to fix it.

One Day Left

2008-10-09T07:02:00.002-05:00

There is only today and tomorrow left to register new voters for the most important election in our lifetimes.

If you'd like to get out and help, we have the following opportunities here in Tulsa tonight:

Rock the Vote Concert - TU Campus 6-9PM
BOK Event - Outside the BOK Center downtown at 6PM

Pick up voter registration forms at the Tulsa Democratic Headquarters on 31st between Harvard and Yale (or print them out yourself from here) and head to the events.

I'd also encourage you to send an email to your friends and acquaintances. Include a link to this blog: http://oklahomaforobama.blogspot.com/, the state website to check on your voter registration: http://www.ok.gov/elections/ppl/index.php, and the state website for the voter registration application: http://www.ok.gov/~elections/vrfrmshl.html.

Applications can be mailed in, but must be postmarked no later than tomorrow to make the deadline. If you'd prefer to hand-carry it to your county election office you can. I understand that the Tulsa County election board will stay open until midnight tomorrow to accommodate last minute filers. If democratic HQ is more convenient for you, drop them by there during office hours today or tomorrow.

Debate Wrapup

2008-10-08T06:54:00.003-05:00

We had perhaps a smaller crowd at the Circle last night than for the previous two debates, but it still overflowed the Quad. I forgot to ask Mike, but I'm guessing it was somewhere in the vicinity of 70 people.

McCain looked much better this time around. He was smother, and clearly more comfortable. You can tell this is his format. Obama of course was just as smooth as ever, but the difference wasn't there like in the previous debate. I actually left a bit disappointed, afraid that this would be chalked up as a McCain "win". McCain made his points well, and did it repeatedly.

The thing is, I'm not an independent or a republican, so I don't know what's in their heads. I can guess what republicans are going to say, just by taking a look at what's in their best interest to say (always be thankful for the gift of a predictable opponent). But for independents, I have to read their reactions to have any clue.

Upon getting home and reading the reactions, things are actually looking good for Obama. Very good. The insta-polls show most folks calling it an Obama win. The numbers calling it a McCain win were in the neighborhood of %26. That's almost exactly the same as the percentage of people who self identify as republican these days. What all this seems to mean is that, although McCain may be making his points just fine, nobody but the party faithful is buying it anymore.

Oh, and the last debate is next Wednesday (also shown at the Circle), and it is in the format that favors Obama, and is going to be entirely on the economy. Sorry to see you drowning there John. Here, have an anchor.

Electoral Map
I know it's only been a couple of days since I last went over the electoral maps, but they have all been updated since, and the change is quite dramatic. CNN just made a minor tweak, and has Obama up to 264 and McCain down to 174. Remember that to win the presidency, 270 is the magic number. McCain would essentially have to run the board of the tossups to take it. That's not gonna happen.

However, that turns out to be the conservative map. Pollster (long my personal favorite) now has the map at Obama 320, McCain 163! That isn't just an Obama win, but a win with 50EV's to spare. Of their 55 tossup EV's, a quick mouse-over shows Obama with slight leads for 18 of them, and a dead tie for North Carolina's 15.

Oh, and the Rasmussen poll? Obama 321, McCain 174.

Can McCain catch up? His allies don't seem to think so. But I don't want anyone reading this to become complacent. A simple win is not enough. What happens in this election is going to be the punctuation mark on our last eight years of disdain for our constitution, our principles, and even common decency. The rest of the world, and history itself will view this election as a referendum on our recent behavior. This needs to be a landslide. The bigger, the better, and any effort that moves so much as one vote is a blow for morality.

Don't feel sorry for the Republicans. Take your inspiration from Conan here.

Registration
...which leads me back to this topic. Voters have only until this Friday to register. I'm told that the county board of elections plans to stay open until midnight on Friday to take applications. Registering voters is the best thing you can be doing right now for your hometown, your state, and your country.

Debate(s) Watch Party

2008-10-07T06:51:00.002-05:00

The second presidential debate is tonight, and the Circle Cinema is again hosting a watch party. Before the presidential debate will be the one and only debate between Andrew Rice and Jim "Who's Afraid of a Little Mercury?" Inhofe for senate. That debate starts at 5:15, so try to get there as early as you can.

The Presidential debate starts at 8, although you'll want to shoot for 7 if you can to ensure good seats. The last two debates were a full house.

This debate is "Town Hall" format, where individuals from the audience get to ask the candidates their own questions. This is McCain's favorite format. That makes this his best chance to look Presidential and put the lie to the Obama campaign's characterization of him as "erratic".

Working against him is probably going to be the news. I'm guessing most questions (excepting those from Republican plants) will be on the economy. Because of the news two weeks ago, that debate ended up being mostly economy too. The topic of the last debate will officially be the economy. Of course that was McCain's weak point even before the "crisis" happened. It's almost enough to make a person feel sorry for him.

Almost. Just think about the 160,000 people who lost their jobs last month, or the 3/4 of a million who lost their jobs this year. Think about all the people who were trying to save to put kids in college, or retire, or are retired, and saw %30 of their savings go up in smoke this year. Then, to paraphrase James Carvile, see if you can find an anchor to throw to the son of a bitch.

Three Days Left to Register

Make sure every possible Democratic voter you know has gotten registered to vote. Forms must be postmarked by this Friday!

Regisration...4 Days!

2008-10-06T07:11:00.003-05:00

We are getting down to the wire on voter registrations. If you look over to the right, you will see a big number 4 there today. You will also see a new link, labeled Verify Your Registration. That's an Oklahoma state website that will return you the state's voting registration records for you. I want everyone reading this blog to click on that and enter the required info to make sure the state has your information correct. I just did it for mine. If you have been purged or have the wrong polling place, you only have 4 days now to get it fixed, so you need to check now. Send this link to all your friends in this state too, so they can check as well.

I've also replaced the calendar at the bottom of the page with a nifty app from Google that will give you localized polling information.

Campaign
Obama's polling lead from last week has been holding steady. Pollster's electoral map has him at 260 EV's now (to 163 for McCain), which is just 10 shy of a win without even factoring in the tossup states. CNN's has it at 250 to 189, and Rasmussen has it at 217 to 174.

As mentioned last week, there are now not enough undecided voters left to swing this McCain's way. To win, he needs to get some "decided" voters to change their minds, which historically they do not do this close to an election. So what does a Republican running against a black man do to change voter's minds at the 11th hour? If you guessed, go negative, you win the Kewpie doll!

Their first gambit is to send Palin around talking about Obama and Terrorists. This is referring to Bill Ayers, who was a radical 40 years ago, but is now working for education reform in Chicago, and has thus bumped into Barack on several occasions. I guess by this logic, McCain is a Democrat too, as he's been in the senate talking to Democrats for the last two decades.

The sad part about this attack is that Palin herself has stronger affiliations with domestic terrorism, in the form of her family's association with the Alaska Independence Party (AIP). Let's see what their founder Joe Vogler had to say about America:

The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government...and I won't be buried under their damn flag...
I'm an Alaskan, not an American. I've got no use for America or her damned institutions.

Sarah's husband Todd was a member of this party until 2002, and only quit when she started running for governor as a Republican. Later, as governor, Sarah addressed their convention and told them (multiple times) to "keep up the good work".

Of course logic isn't the point here. They are just hoping to throw enough mud that something will stick. When this particular lie loses its flavor, they'll just open up their big juicy-fruit pack of lies and pop in a new one. A politician meets so many people that there is really no end to what they can dredge up along these lines.

Registration..Final Push

2008-10-05T08:24:00.004-05:00

We had a great time registering and talking to voters yesterday at Osage Hills. The amount of Obama signage there was truly inspiring, as was the amount of people who had already registered on their own, and the general enthusiasm for the election. I talked to one veteran who served three tours in Iraq, and told me he wants to make sure nobody else gets sent back there. Funny, he didn't once say "let us win", like McCain claims they all say.

I seriously doubt that very many of the folks we talked to out there show up on anybody's "likely voter" list. If all of Tulsa is like this, I think some people are going to be quite surprised come election day.

Today
This afternoon we will be at the OCCJ March toward CommUNITY (details here). Anyone can participate in the march of course, but if you'd like to do so with us, contact Mary Jo at 269-4400.

This Week
Any new voter registrations need to be postmarked by this Friday (the 10th) in order to be elegible for the general election. So even if you can only find a few hours during the week to help, please do so. Just stop by HQ at 3930 East 31 Street (between Yale and Harvard). There we can give you some quick training and a stack of voter registration forms.

If you can't find time during office hours, then I'll give you quick instruction here. You can download and print out the forms directly from the Oklahoma State Election Board's website. The most important things to remember are:

Do not wear any Obama (or Democratic party) gear.
Try to fill out the forms for the person, to ensure things are filled out properly and legibly.
Convicted Felons can vote if they are no longer on parole.
Try to also get email and phone numbers too, for our own lists.
Bring a clipboard and multiple pens.
Please turn all forms back in at Democratic Headquarters, so we can keep track of them.
If for some reason they are busy (or someone wants one for someone else) they can of course fill the form out themselves and mail it in. It must be postmarked by this Friday!
Mention that they can vote early to avoid the lines on election day. Early voting is November 1, 2, and 3 (the election is Nov 4).

People you can contact:
Mary Jo for the Tulsa area in general.
Alicia Cater in Wagoner.
Delorus Crawford in the area around Admiral and Harvard.
Blanca Thames for the Tulsa area Hispanic community.

If you can't even leave your computer, there's still something you can do to help. Send this blog to 5 friends. Send this video (embedded below) to five friends. The video is promoting this great voter registration website that Google worked up. Send that to five friends.

Registration Today!

2008-10-04T09:03:00.002-05:00

I believe this is our last weekend to register voters. At 11:30 today we will meet HQ (3930 East 31 Street). After a brief orientation, we will be caravaning to the Osage Hills housing project. We hope to find a very large amount of interested but unregistered voters there. Bring a couple of clipboards and pens, and don't wear any politically-identifying items.

Letter from an Independent
Greg got this letter after the debate, and suggested I share it. Since I'm doing it only on his permission, the author is not being attributed. A small amount of spelling correction has also been done.

Additionally, below is my observation of last night's VP debate. It is not my only observation but it is one that illustrates the ability of the Republicans to "mainline" into the American psyche, something that continues to elude the Democrats. This failure perplexes me. I am a registered Independent as is my husband. We are the people from whom your party seeks votes.

Observation:
Please tell the honorable Senator Biden that he needs a 2nd change of his "intellectual" precepts. He stated in the debate that his "1st change" was his perception that ideology of judicial nominees for the Supreme Court does matter which I support this stance. The 2nd change Biden better recognize he needs to make now IS TO BE SUSPICIOUS OF SOMEONE'S MOTIVES as demonstrated by the "first name" request from Palin. There has been innumerable Media mentions of how friendly Sarah Palin was when the 2 of them first walked onto the debate stage. She asked Senator Biden if she could call him by his first name Joe. On camera. Loudly. And she said it very quickly in a tone uncharacteristic of the Palin pitch and immediately disengaged herself from him, never even acknowledging the Moderator, turned toward her podium & left him out there. Palin was now on target by obtaining his permission to call him by his first name. Watch the encounter again.

She baited him as her handlers instructed her to in order to accomplish her first goal. Biden thought nothing of this request? And then he said yes!?! Biden could have just gracefully ignored her request by saying "It's so finally nice to meet you, Governor Palin and I am looking forward to this debate" all the while flashing his smile, turning and walking to his podium. She would have been thrown off her rehearsed strategy. However, she obtained ownership of his name. It's Negotiation Rule #1: Never give your adversary ownership of your name. First name basis? Never. Never. Never. Never. And with Biden's permission, she would later in the debate employ the quip of "Say it ain't so, Joe" and get away with it. What a primal zinger she has achieved for the Republicans with that one sound bite, that one liner. That was her motive.

Furthermore, who did mike them? And on their person? How did live mikes happen before they reached their podiums? Doesn't someone set rules by which the candidates are to refer to each other before hand? How did this exchange happen ON STAGE & ON MIKE?

Obama wasn't successful with this "first name" tactic as Obama inadvertently associated success or deference to McCain by saying "John, you are correct" or "John, I agree with you" and you know the rest of that story. Now, the Republicans have doubled back with this tactic and used it to diminish the stature of Senator Biden under the Palin guise of "friendly". The Republicans were able to double back on the gender angle, too, with this "first name" ploy, using it to their advantage. Think on that for awhile.

Tell the Obama team to wake up to these primal nuances or they will lose the election and tell Senator Biden to be suspect of motives, all motives,
especially your opponent's.

I apologize for the length of this email. Thank you for your forbearance in
reading it.
XXX XXXX

BTW: For what it's worth, David Letterman just agreed with me on her motive.

There are some good points in there. However, this is just the VP's we are talking about here.

Debate Wrapup

2008-10-03T06:54:00.004-05:00

A good time was had by all at the debate party at the Circle Cinema last night. The crowd this time was a bit less than one hundred. That's less than last time, but not by a huge amount. Fairly impressive.

Ms. Palin didn't exactly sound like leader of the Free World material, but she didn't run crying from the auditorium either. That's probably enough to call it a moral victory for her. Plus everybody's attention was taken away from the lousy economy. That's a big win for McCain.

As far as the actual debate, all the instapolling last night seems to indicate that Biden stomped her. Highlights were him going after Cheney, and a moment late in the debate where he talked about the adversity he's seen in his life, and choked up a bit when he got to the part about his son almost dying.

This isn't even the half of it either. His wife and baby daughter died in the same accident. I've often wondered why he didn't bring it up more often, but it's pretty clear from watching this that he just can't do it without getting emotional and loosing his train of thought. I guess the rest of us will have to bring it up for him.

Again, I don't think in the long run VP debates matter much. For a debate that will matter, meet us back at the Circle on Tuesday for the second presidential debate. This will be in McCain's favorite format, Town Hall, so its his best (perhaps only) remaining chance to turn the election around. However, Obama's not exactly a noob at talking to people one on one and in small groups either. That's pretty much what a community organizer does.

Workin' for the Weekend
We are down to the final week for voter registrations, and need to go out big. Tomorrow we will be doing a big voter registration push at Osage Hills. We suspect there are a very large amount of interested but unregistered voters there. This one drive has the potential to turn the whole election in Tulsa County. So please call Mary Jo at 269-4400 or email Greg and prepare to show up at the headquarters tomorrow morning at 11:30 with a clipboard and a smile.

VP Debate

2008-10-02T06:59:00.003-05:00

The VP debate is tonight. Again I'd suggest coming out to the Circle Cinema, rather than rail at your own TV at home.

If you've seen Palin's recent interviews, I wouldn't expect this to go just like those. The debate format isn't an interview, where reporters can follow up (non)answers. It turns out that the one thing in the world Ms. Palin actually has a good amount of experience at is political debating. There's a good article up by one of her former opponents describing her performace. She's probably done it way more than Biden. She got her job as Alaska governor on the strength of her debate performances.

If Biden if known for anything, its for putting his foot in his mouth. To top it off, I can guarantee you that the Reps already have the details worked out on the "Biden disrespected poor Sarah" campaign, and are just waiting to pull the trigger.

Its also true that win, loose, or draw, it probably isn't going to matter all that much. If it did, our VP in 1988 would have been Lloyd Bentsen. The fact is people don't vote for VP, they vote for president. So look for both candidates to be attacking the other ticket's headliner, and mostly ignoring the person across from them.

Fired Up
Here's where I'd like to post a video of Biden to get you fired up and ready to go for the debate. But since this isn't Oklahoma for Biden, I'm instead going to post this amazing clip I came across of a speech Obama gave the day after the last debate. I does have Biden in it a bit.

This speech, on its own, would easily be one of the three best I've heard Obama give. However, it started to rain a few minutes in, and thus events conspired to give us something more.

I remember hearing a interview a few years back with a guy who grew up in the Bronx. When he was a kid he took piano lessons, and was fairly good. He said that once he found himself in the house of a friend of his mom's, and was told to go play with her son William, who was "the same age as you and plays piano like you". So he goes in with this kid where the piano was, and sits down to try to play, only to find that a lot of the keys were broken. He gives up in disgust, and asks the kid how he can possibly play with this thing. The other boy tells him, "Oh, it's no big deal. I just play around the broken keys". William then sits down and proceeds to do just that. That's when this guy realises he's in the presence of someone who's not meerly good, but a genius. William grew up to be known as "Billy Joel".

That's the story that came to my mind as I watched this video. Obama starts by shrugging the rain off as unimportant, much like you'd see in a professional football player. Then he starts to use it. By the end, its as integral a part of his speech as if he'd called it up himself for the occasion. I've never seen anything like this.

Anyway, set yourself aside 26 minutes and watch this.

...and Ready to Go
If you're not fired up and ready to go after watching that, you must be one of those dead Chicago democratic voters the Reps keep telling me about. So I know you are now anxious to come help us this weekend register voters at Osage Hills. Call Mary Jo at 269-4400 or email Greg.

This weekend

2008-10-01T06:55:00.003-05:00

This weekend is one of only two left for registering voters for this election. So it's important that we get as many volunteers as possible this weekend.

Osage Hills

At our war council last night we decided to go for broke. We'll be doing the Wal-Marts again, because they have also worked well, but we are going to try for a big push at Osage Hills this weekend. This has a potential to net us a very large number of registrations. The more people we get, the quicker and more efficiently we can get this done.

Please call Mary Jo at 269-4400 or email Greg to tell us you will be there to help.

We will meet at the party HQ (3930 East 31 Street) at 11:30 AM on Saturday for a quick orientation. Then we will caravan to Osage hills and try to cover the entire complex working in pairs.

If you can't work at that time, but still want to help this weekend, go ahead and call Mary Jo. She'll tell you when else we could use the help.

March Toward CommUNITY

I personally plan on attending this, but I'm not sure how well publicised it has been. Sunday afternoon OCCJ is sponsoring a 2 mile march downtown in support of community and justice in the Tulsa area. This is part of their 50th anniversary celebration. It will start and end at the Greenwood Cultural Center (322 North Greenwood). Afterwards there will be a "Blues and BBQ celebration". I'm told that showing up just for that part is discouraged though. (You slackers out there know I'm talking about you. :-) )

There will be $500 prizes given out to the groups with the most participants in five categories. Registration starts at 2, the march starts at 3, and the celebration afterwards begins at 5:45. I'm told other food options besides BBQ will be provided.

As usual, any other ideas or comments you may have are welcome in the comments section below.

Local Campaign News

2008-09-30T06:51:00.002-05:00

Registration

We did an event in support of Creek County democrats this past weekend, and ended up registering about 56 voters. In addition, we "showed the flag" up there, to great response.

I think that's a pretty good number, all things considered. However, we know we can do better at events in more densely settled areas in Tulsa. Given that we are down to the last 10 days, we are going to try to keep what resources we have those areas.

We do have one good new piece of news. We got permission yesterday from the Chief of the Osages to do registration events at the tribe's casinos. There's still a layer or two of tribal bureaucracy this has to be pushed through, but hopefully we'll be able to work the casinos this weekend.

All this being said, there's absolutely nothing stopping you from registering voters yourself wherever you think will work and on your own schedule. The forms are available from the Oklahoma Election Board's website. Just read the instructions, download the form, and print out all you need. One caveat is that you can't pump a particular political party or view before you register someone.

Keep an eye on this site for our official registration events.

Ideas

Anyone who has stopped by County HQ in the last few weeks has noticed the transformation. What used to be a sleepy office with friendly people happy for a chance to chat has become a frenzied beehive of activity.

This is great of course, but there is a downside. Some folks who want to call in to give ideas for the campaign have to get the brush-off. We don't like doing it, but we just don't have the time for it right now.

However, here on the Oklahoma for Obama website, we have all the time in the world. So this is the place to come with your ideas for the campaign. Crazy like a fox, or just plain crazy, click the "comments" link below and post them here. We are going to be holding a war council in the next few days, and I'd love to arrive with a pocketful of great ideas from you folks to present.

Poll Upswing Continued

2008-09-29T06:51:00.002-05:00

The surge for Obama continues today. Rasmussen doesn't have new numbers up yet, but Research 2000 this morning has Obama up another point to %51 (his highest yet), and McCain down another point to %42. Gallup also has Obama up another point to %50 (and McCain down 2).

Nate Silver argued yesterday that its going to be a lot harder for McCain to come back from this than a lot of pundits are letting on. Hard does not mean impossible though, and the Reps have really yet to start swinging with both hands. The real nastiness won't even start until the last 72 hours, when their dreaded ground game gets into full gear.

As a reminder again, there will be a VP debate watch party at the Circle Cinema this Thursday. It probably won't be a game changer one way or the other, but you should watch. I think you should come watch with us, because it's just way too frustrating to watch stuff like this (video below) alone. You need to hear the groans of the other listeners just to prove that it's not you who is the insane one.

So for the sake of your own sanity, please watch the debate with friends.

Polling Data

2008-09-28T09:01:00.003-05:00

The first polling data that has all of this week's crisis, McCain's bizarre behavior, and the debate on Friday cooked in is starting to trickle in. Its not quite as good as one might think it would be, but its still pretty good.

Rasmussen has had Obama steady at %50 for the last 3 days, after climbing to that point over the course of the week. The Research 2000 Tracking Poll now also shows Obama at %50 with an upward trajectory. Gallup's daily shows Obama at %49, also with an upward vector.

The important thing about those %50 numbers is that once Obama reaches that mark, no amount of undecideds swinging to McCain can pull him ahead.

Of course those of us that lived through 2000 know that national popular vote is not how we decide elections. The electoral counts are looking similarly nice as well. The magic number here is 270. Pollster has Obama and McCain at 229 and 174 respectively, with "leaners" included. Rasmussen has it at 255 and 227 with leaners included. CNN has it at 240 and 200.

Of course this week has shown that a lot can happen quickly, and we still have about 5 weeks to go.

Debate Wrapup

2008-09-27T10:13:00.003-05:00

We had a huge turn-out last night. Mike's count came to over 100! At one point midway through I turned around to look, and the crowd stretched all the way back to the door. Now I see why Tulsans for Obama needed their own watch party. There simply would not have been room.

It was great to get a chance to meet some of you in person. I particularly liked that Mike has us go around and do some introductions before the actual debate started. We had people from at least five different states (four of them "battleground" states). We had quite a few first-time voters, and several people who have been voting for more than 30 years. I brought one of my legion of mini-mules. He won't be old enough to vote until the 2016 general election, but wanted to come see this. On the other extreme, we had a World War II vet who had cast his first vote for Truman in 1948. He is now, of course, an Obama supporter.

The Stump of Jesse
Listening to him reminisce, it occurred to me that my own first vote ever in a presidential campaign was 20 years ago, for Jesse Jackson. For those of you who weren't around then, Jesse won 11 primaries that year, and for a while was the front-runner for the nomination.

Since it was my first election, I researched the candidates positions as thoroughly as I could, and picked the one who best supported my views on the issues. That happened to be Jesse. So you can imagine my frustration when, even while he was the front-runner, all the media wanted to ask him was What do you really want? Like it couldn't possibly be, you know, to be president or anything.

No matter what your opinions are about Jesse, he laid the groundwork two decades ago for what you saw last night. There was a brief moment when the candidates were shaking hands at the beginning where I was thinking, Holy ****, that's an African-American up there being taken seriously. Even better, the moment was brief, and after that he was just one of the two people up there interviewing for the job. Clearly the better one, at that.

Results
Sadly, you can never tell what the story is going to be after the debate simply by watching the debate. Most people don't watch, so the general opinion of who won comes out of the mouths of the talking heads on TV after they've had about five days to masticate on it. The reps of course had their "McCain wins the debate" mini-campaign up and running even before the debate started. Things look good so far though. The snap polls afterward seem to indicate an Obama win by around %10 points or so. If that can hold, the percentages are liable to increase in the coming days.

As for the wider election, I have to wonder. This debate was on supposedly McCain's best subject, National Security. Not pulling out a win here is a bad sign for him. However, this was such a bad week for McCain that *any* change of subject, even to a bit of a loss in a debate, is a good thing for him.

On to Nashville
The next debate on October 7 is McCain's favorite format (Town Hall), so he has a chance to look better. The final one on the 15th will be normal format, and on the economy. If he doesn't watch it, Obama will plaster him to the wall in that one.

I'm not talking about the VP debate on the 2nd (next Thursday), because I don't think it really matters that much in the long run. If it did Dan Quayle and George Bush Sr. would never have been elected. However, it will be worth watching because one of those two will be in the White House for the next 4-8 years, and possibly president after that. I'll be at the Circle Cinema that night, and I hope to see you there too.

Watch Party ON!

2008-09-26T17:35:00.003-05:00

I just wanted to get out a quick message about the watch party tonight. McCain has agreed to show up, so the debate is indeed on at 8 tonight. The watch party at the Circle Cinema starts at 7. I haven't heard anything about food or refreshments, so my suggestion would be to eat before you show up.

Also, I got an email from "OFA OK HQ" today about another watch party at the Transport Workers Hall. This was a bit confusing to me at least, so I want everyone to understand that this is a different watch party. The venue for our party has not changed; it is at the Circle Cinema, 12 South Lewis Avenue in Tulsa. Details and registration here.

"OFA OK" I believe is Obama For America - Oklahoma, aka Tulsans for Obama. Why they chose to have their own separate party rather than join with the 10 other area Obama groups at the Circle, I'm not really sure. But I suppose if you arrive at the Circle and it is full, that would be an alternate location you could go to. The address is 11945 E. Pine.

Weekend Events

2008-09-25T20:51:00.006-05:00

Our big registration event this weekend is an event in Creek county. We need lots of volunteers for this one, so if you have some time to donate, please come out. I'll let Greg talk about it in his own words below

This Saturday, 9/27/08, you can help turn Creek County blue! Saturday, , Oklahoma For Obama will work with our neighbors in Creek County (Sapulpa, Bristow, etc,) in a one day all out registration drive.
We will meet @ DEM. HQs, 3930 East 31st St. in Tulsa @ 8:00 for orientation and voter reg. 101 training. Then we will carpool and caravan to the Bristow @ 10th and Chestnut.

You should bring: a clipboard, pens, sun screen, a hat. water and a "Yes We Can!" attitude.

We need to know how many folks will join us so please RSVP either: mjhales@staufferlaw.com or stephanielewisimcot@gmail.com

One thing I should add is that you cannot wear any apparel with politically identifying messages on it while registering voters. So please leave your Lick Bush T-Shirt in the closet just this once.

Because of the scale and time of this event, Mary Jo won't be able to support the TU Tailgate party this Saturday. However, there is still a local democratic event going on there, in support of Chad Hawkins, a candidate for State House in district 79. This is being held on Saturday before the game at Ella's Deli at 3208 East 11th St.

Debate Watch Party

McChicken or no McChicken, as of now this is still being held. If you are planning on coming, I'd suggest RSVPing here or here. That will allow the organizers the ability to send you reminders, and perhaps a cancellation notice in the exceedingly unlikely event that occurs.

While we are on the subject of McChicken, Mary Jo asked if I could dig up a video of our favorite septuagenarian doing the chicken dance. I got pretty close. So this video is for her:

McChicken

2008-09-25T06:57:00.004-05:00

By now you have probably already heard that McCain is trying to chicken out of the debates. It appears he wants us to believe that the looming financial crisis is so important that he, as a senator, can't spare time for such mundane trivia as helping the people of this country decide who's going to lead it five short weeks from now.

This is the same "senator" who hasn't shown up for a vote since April. Senators Obama and Clinton managed to take time out of their busy campaign schedules to make important votes during that time. Even Ted Kennedy, undergoing treatment for malignant brain cancer, has found some votes so important that he had himself helped into the chamber to vote a time or two. But not John McCain.

So its pretty clear that it's not his pressing senatorial duties that are worrying McCain. Likewise, I doubt his primary concern in wanting to cancel the vice-presidential debate is his running mate's gubernatorial duties in her small (and financially flush) state. It's pretty obvious that he's simply afraid of the debates.

Obama could have agreed to this. After all, he's ahead right now, so one could argue that the debates can only hurt him. However, his response is that at this moment, the debates are more important than ever. Notice how he's already fighting for you; in this case for your ability to make an informed decision on November 4.

Obama's having none of it, so as of this writing the debates are still on. This means that the watch party tomorrow night is also still on. Join us at the Circle Cinema an hour before the debate starts.

Registration Report

2008-09-24T06:53:00.001-05:00

I talked to Greg and Mary Jo last night. We picked up about 315 registrations last weekend. That's half again as many as the week before. Greg registered a first-time voter born in 1941, and Mary Jo got one born in 1940. Both specifically registered because they were worried about "that crazy Palin woman".

With more volunteers we can improve on even these numbers this weekend. You can be an important part of it. Just call one of the coordinators and ask how you can help. Mary Jo can be reached at 269-4400, and Greg can be reached via gregmarkley@att.net .

Creek County
For those of you in or near Creek County (for you insular Tulsans, if you have a car this means you), we are running a one day voter drive there on the 27th. We need lots of volunteers for this. The more we have, the more successful this will be. Please get hold of Greg at gregmarkley@att.net if you'd like to help.

TU Tailgate Party
In addition to the typical Wal-Marts and flea markets, Mary Jo is planning on working the TU tailgate party this weekend. Kickoff is at 6PM on the 27th, but of course the tailgate party would start some time before then. Call her at 269-4400 to help.

Getting the Word Out
Please take the time today to send a link to this blog to least two other people. The more eyeballs we have in here, the stronger the campaign will be. We are off to a great start, and are growing, but we need our efforts to grow exponentially. We don't have the time to sit around and wait for everyone to come to us.

Debate watch parties

2008-09-23T17:42:00.004-05:00

I wanted to get this out now so everyone can make their plans accordingly.

Mike Workman and a whole host of area Obama organizations are hosting watch parties for the debates at the Circle Cinema. The first one of course is this Friday at 7 PM (debate starts at 8).

The Circle Cinema is at 12 South Lewis Avenue here in Tulsa. The other debates will be on October 2nd, 7th, and 15th. With the race as close as it is, these debates will probably be the turning point in the campaign. You don't have to suffer (or thrill) through them in silence at home.

Mike would like RSVPs either here or here, but I do not believe an RSVP is necessary to show up, just encouraged. This is a great chance to meet fellow area Obama/Biden supporters and compare notes, or just socialize. So make plans to be there this Friday at 7.

New Game

2008-09-23T06:43:00.007-05:00

Let's play a little game I like to call Spot the Elitist.
(Click on the image for a larger picture)

Surprisingly, a lot of people seem to be having trouble with this one.

Polls

2008-09-22T06:57:00.002-05:00

Before I say anything, I'd like to thank everyone who came out to help register voters at all the events this weekend. I'll try to get some kind of numbers to let you know how we did overall posted here tomorrow.

Most of you probably realise that the week after the RNC Convention was a bad week for Obama. All the talk was about Palin and personalities, her family's choices, field-dressing mooses, etc. None of those are really core message for the Democrats. McCain's numbers shot up and passed Obama's.

Then last week reality poked its nose back in the campaign, in the form of the banking crisis. Its funny what putting the focus on a real problem facing this country can do. I wanted to take this time to show everyone the current numbers, in case you got dejected a week ago and quit looking at the polls.

I'll add the pretty graphics when I can figure out how to do it (they are typically HTML scripts, not nice little pictures), but in the meantime if you check the DailyKos tracking poll or the Gallup Daily Election tracking poll you will see the same thing: McCain's numbers dropped like a rock at the start of last week, while Obama's went up to near 50%. The polls currently show Obama at %49 and McCain at %43 and %45 respectively.

The message here is pretty clear. When the discussion is about the real problems this country faces after 8 (or 30 depending on how you look at it) years of republican rule, we win. When its about personalities and moose-meat, we loose. Keep this in mind when you are talking to your friends and neighbors.

Registration Drive Weekend Update

2008-09-21T08:39:00.002-05:00

I got a couple of messages from Greg this morning which I'd like to share. A summary wouldn't do them justice.

My 2 voter reg teams registered 23 voters on Brookside. One woman who I helped was born in 1941 and had never registered to vote until today and primarily did so because of Pallin! I mainly did a visibility, sign sales, and volunteer recruitment, thing. I must have sold 100 Obama Biden yard signs (sold out!). People honked and cheered!

and

Not only did I sell out of Obama signs ... people took all (almost) of the other candidates' info I on display! Moreover, a lot of people commented on how many Obama signs they see all over town and how few McCain/Palin signs. Most saw last week as pivotal, and feel the McCain’s campaign is in self-destruct mode.

Just to make it clear, this was a 68 year old woman who has never in her life even registered to vote. But she's doing it this year so she can vote against Palin. These are the kinds of inspiring Tulsans you can meet when you help us register voters.

We still have lots of registration events left for today, so pick one, call the coordinator, and show up to make a difference. (See my two previous posts for events, times, and basic instructions).

Work Day

2008-09-20T10:22:00.003-05:00

Today is our big day for voter registration drives! Please pick one or more from the list in yesterday's posting and come out to help make a difference.

Things to remember about voter registrations:

Bring a clipboard and extra pens.
The coordinator should bring plenty of forms, but you can print your own out from here (requires acrobat).
Don't wear any party or candidate identifying clothing or pins, buttons, etc.
Don't discuss your own political views before a person has completed the form. They'll have to guess. :-)
Don't discourage anyone from registering for any reason.

I want to emphasise that last point. I don't care if they did tell you they want to register Republican or LaRouche or whatever. We try to weed those folks out by picking our locations to perform the drives. However, once we are there it's our moral (and legal) imperative to register everyone regardless of affiliation.

Campaign News

2008-09-19T07:11:00.003-05:00

There's a lot of news to get through today.

Office Moving

The first bit of news is that our office is moving. The new address is 3930 East 31st St. This is also the Tulsa Democratic Headquarters, so you can pick up campaign signs and materials for you other favorite democratic candidates when you stop by. Please do stop by, pick up your swag, and volunteer.

Registration Status

Greg turned in a batch of over 200 voter registrations to the county election board office this week. Congratulations to everyone who helped gather those registrations. But we need more, way more.

Now that we have a bit more experience, we can analyze which locations work well and which don't. Half of those registrations were gathered at a single drive at Wal-Mart last weekend. Half of the remainder were gathered at another drive at the east Tulsa flea market. We sent a lot more people to the various football games last Friday, and didn't gather more than 20 or so. So we are going to be dropping the football game drives and refocusing our efforts to locations like the area Wal-Marts and flea/farmers markets. I'll get the calendar updated when I can, but for now know that the football game drives are not happening. If you are going to one anyway and want to take some forms, by all means do so though.

Registration Opportunities

If you want to do something more that just simply voting to help Obama get elected (and every other Democrat in the area), this is your big chance. This weekend we have lots of registration drives going on. Just pick one or two from the list below that fit your schedule, and call the coordinators. We have plenty of opportunities, so don't just sit back an let someone else do it. Come on out and help!

If you want to help with the flea market drive this Saturday morning, contact Mary-Jo at 269-4400. She is also coordinating drives at the Quick Trip Anniversary Festival this Saturday from 5 to 7 PM.

We will also be doing a drive at the TU tailgate party this Saturday from Noon to 5PM at the stip mall on 11th street across from the stadium. Again, contact Mary-Jo at 269-4400 if you'd like to help.

Louis King will will be running a drive outside the BOK center during the Lil' Wayne concert this Saturday from 6-7:30 PM. You can contact him at 437-0310 to help.

Greg will be leading a drive at the Brookside Artzz this Saturday (tomorrow) from 11 to 5. He will also be coordinating a drive at the Jazz Hall of Fame during the concert this Sunday. If you like to listen to some good Jazz while you help register voters, contact him at gregmarkley@att.net.

Finally Blanca is running a drive at the downtown Hispanic Festival this weekend. It is both Saturday and Sunday from 1-10PM. The hispanic community in Tulsa has been growing much more quickly in the last few years than I think most Tulsans realise. Nothing less than the party's future hangs on how well we reach out to this community. Blanca has been working hard to register their voters for the last two years, so she's one of my personal heroes. If you have any free time at all to donate this weekend call her at 231-3340.

Debate Watch Parties

The campaign will be hosting watch parties for the debates. More on this in a later post, but for now mark you calendars.

Mule Skinner's Mail Pouch

2008-09-18T06:44:00.004-05:00

I got the following email the other day:

Do you know if someone is doing a similar blog for other parts of the state?

After a long web search, I'm afraid I could find no other local Obama campaign site in Oklahoma. The closest I found was the statewide site up on Barack's main campaign website. It has some local area subpages.

I did find a fairly rich lode of personal blogs of Oklahomans who are writing about the campaign, along with their other concerns. The best I saw were:

Blue Oklahoma
Peace Arena - The emailer in question's own blog
Alternative Tulsa
Just Not Right aka Kittenstomper
Middle Raged Punk
Oklahoma Lefty
Sinister - For those of you who don't know Latin, Sinister means left
Fourth District Democrat - Covering southwest Oklahoma
Soonerthought
The Oklahoma Hippy - Currently has a lot of posts up about last night's Ani Difranco concert. Greg was there too. He had a great time, and registered 20 new voters.

I should also mention Sooner Kos, which isn't as much a blog as a discussion group on the Daily Kos website. Its fairly low volume, but you can find me there.

With a list this long, its inevitable that I missed a few good ones. Feel free to post your favorites.

Registrations Up or Down?

2008-09-17T07:08:00.003-05:00

I stumbled across an interesting article by
Randy Krehbiel in Monday's Tulsa World about declines in the voter rolls in Tulsa voting districts. This is despite the fact that the population of the city is growing. This is mostly due to purges in the voter rolls in guess where? That's right, heavily democratic districts in north and east Tulsa.

The six north and east Tulsa districts pictured here lost about 3,000 voters in the last two years.

I'm not suggesting anything nefarious here. Randy's article suggests the culprit is declining home ownership rates in the area. Renters move more, and thus need to reregister more often than homeowners do. I suppose you could call the ongoing impoverishment of the working class, and north Tulsa in particular "nefarious", but that's another story.

I do know that we are going to work our tails off to reverse this. I'm going to try to get some detailed numbers today, but I do know that just two of our weekend registration events alone made up %5 of this deficit. We are still just getting geared up and learning where the most effective places to register people are, so I expect this to accelerate in the days to come.

In the meantime, if you want to help, please call the office (or stop by during business hours). If you have any suggestions for good places to register voters, please post a reply to this message.

Help Us - Help Yourself

2008-09-16T07:00:00.005-05:00

The election is now 7 weeks away. I know a big deal has been made about Obama's fundraising, but that isn't the whole story. The Republicans have the resources of the world's weathiest men to draw on. Campaign finance laws limit how much money they can give to any one candidate, so they just find other ways to leverage their money. They give to the RNC. They start "astroturf" campaigns. They own many of the media outlets. They even own the companies that make the ballot boxes.

To fight all this we only have one asset: you.

This one asset can make all the difference. There are way more of us than there are of them. If we all stand up, they lose. If we sit around waiting for others to do everything for us like usual, we lose. It's that simple. El pueblo unido jamás será vencido

Our stategy for this cycle is equally simple. Until Friday, October 10 (the registration deadline) we register new voters. Lots of them. Everyone we can. After that, we get registered voters to vote. If we do both well enough, we can win. Yes, even here in Oklahoma.

If you have time, please contact the campaign at (918)497-6292 or stop by the office at 3930 East 31 Street during business hours to ask about helping out with voter registration. Our calendar lists the big official pushes, but there are lots of other ways to help register voters. Even if you don't have the time, make sure your friends and relatives are properly registered. Also make sure they know about this website. Getting others to help is as good as helping yourself. Everyone should strive to do both.

For those with specialized skills and gifts or extra fee time there are some other needs the campaign has right now. Namely:

Volunteer staff for the office. Hours are Monday through Friday from 9 to 5. Saturday 9 to noon.
Write letter to the editors of the Tulsa World and other papers.
Help manage the newsletter.
Update Demkookie and Tulsa Dem Newsletter.
Apply to be Tulsa County precinct officers.
Make color copies.
Make black and white copies of materials.
A CPA or accountant to track receipts/expenditures.
Order, sell and distribute T-shirts.
A graphic artist.
Several more trucks with drivers are needed to pick up and deliver Obama stuff.

You can also inquire at the office about donating funds to the campaign.

It is said that evil triumphs when good men do nothing. It is time for the good women and men of Oklahoma to stand up and do something. Yes, Oklahoma Can! Si Se Puede Oklahoma!

Welcome

2008-09-15T07:20:00.003-05:00

Welcome to the Oklahoma For Obama Campaign 2008 blog. This is a statewide campaign, but those of us running this blog are from Tulsa. Our activities are going to concentrated there. We'd like to try to use this blog to help tell everyone what is going on, what our needs are and what you can do to help.

Our primary push right now is for voter registration. All across the country Democratic voter registrations are way up, and with your help Tulsa will be no exception. Check out the calendar at the bottom of this blog to see what your upcoming opportunities to help will be.

Like the presidency itself, this is the people's campaign. If you don't participate, it doesn't happen. So if you have any suggestions for things you'd like to see here, feel free to post them below. Otherwise, make sure you get registered to vote, and make sure all your friends are registered as well.

Oklahoma For Obama

Star Spangled Banner

Final Countup

Results - Friday

Oklahoma, The Land that Time Forgot

Landslide

Watch Parties

They Will Enter Zion With Signing

An American Prayer

Conservatives for Obama

VOTE

More Videos

Obama on Native Issues

One Day More

Last Day of Early Voting

McCain's House

Video Diary

Democrats on Economics

McCain and Friends

Early Voting - Day 2

Attack of the Robots

More Early Voting

First Day of Early Voting

Obamathon

Tomorrow - First Day of Voting

Obama Admission

Absentee - Last Day

Charles

Electoral College Update

Obama's Closing Argument

Apply Today

Missed Opportunity

Wassup Now

Fox Admits Defeat

Sitcoms for Obama

Vote Absentee

Electoral College Update

Absentee

Plea from the Election Board

Voting Info pt. 2

Voting Info

Electoral College Update

Powell to the People

Down Ticket

Volunteer Opportunities

Debate Wrapup

The Problem with Polls

The Bad News

Volunteers Needed

Exclusive

Ding Ding Ding

Last Day to Register

One Day Left

Debate Wrapup

Debate(s) Watch Party

Regisration...4 Days!

Registration..Final Push

Registration Today!

Debate Wrapup

VP Debate

This weekend

Local Campaign News

Poll Upswing Continued

Polling Data

Debate Wrapup

Watch Party ON!

Weekend Events

McChicken

Registration Report

Debate watch parties

New Game

Polls

Registration Drive Weekend Update

Work Day

Campaign News

Mule Skinner's Mail Pouch

Registrations Up or Down?

Help Us - Help Yourself

Welcome