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Saturday, November 8, 2008

Final Countup




Whoops! I was right about Missouri's electoral votes, but not the Omaha Nebraska vote. It looks like they counted absentee ballots last in Nebraska, and they went overwhelmingly to Obama. So the final total for the Great Election of 2008 ends up being 365 for Obama to 173 for McCain.

This vindicates the Obama campaign's decision to spend some time and money in Omaha in the final days of the campaign. That in turn vindicated the Nebraska legislature's decision to split their electoral votes that way. Given this result, I have to wonder if any other states that got neglected this cycle are going to follow Nebraska's lead.

Where We Go From Here
There are still a couple of Senate races to be decided, but this pretty much wraps up the Presidential campaign news for 2008.

For those of you wondering we at the campaign will be doing now that the campaign is over, I had wondered that myself.

Greg I know is planning on helping in the Great Crusade to take our state back for The Light ... if he doesn't get called up to DC, which I understand is a possibility. Mary Jo and Blanca I know will continue fighting until the day the Good Lord calls them Home. That's just the way they were made.

As for me? Calvin Rees at DemoOkie has graciously offered to add me as an author there. When I started this effort I did a survey of every Democratic and progressive blog and message board in the state that I could find. Calvin runs the best general-purpose Democratic message board in the state, and his blog has become an important resource for me here at Oklahoma For Obama, so I was very honored to accept. If you are interested, my first post is already up. See you there!

Friday, November 7, 2008

Results - Friday



Another day out, and we still don't have a final count. North Carolina did finally come in, so we do now stand at 364 to 173. However, it now looks like Obama is likely to get the Omaha EV from Nebraska, (still not Missouri though). It's nice to see some vindication for Nebraska finally in their decision to split their EV's this way. Let's hope this causes some other larger states to follow their example.

Thursday, November 6, 2008



Its two days later, and we still don't have all the EV's in. However, the final Nebraska EV and the ones for Missouri look like they are going to go McCain. North Carolina is still a tossup, but one where Obama is slightly ahead at the moment. So the final count looks like it will probably be 364 to 173.

Obama has named his transition team. No names on it I recognize by sight, but that's typical for a transition team. The main transition news is the on again off again talk about Rahm Emmanuel becoming Obama's Chief of Staff. He's got a rep as a real down and dirty take no prisoners kind of guy. I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be with him anywhere else in the Administration, but Chief of Staff is a good fit for that. If Obama doesn't want to hear from you, you will not be getting by Rahm.

One of the big questions a lot of us on The Left have about the aftermath of the election has been, will the Reps Get It? Will they accept the repudiation the country has handed them with, and do the soul-searching required to rebuild their party, or will they find a couple of convenient scapegoats and go on using their same old message that worked so well in 1980 when they crafted it? Frankly the longer they stay in denial, the better off we will be.

So far, Denial seems to be winning. There's been a fair bit of blaming Palin. It turns out she spent even more on clothes than was reported. She had her staffers buy her stuff on their credit cards, which are only now being charged back to the campaign for reimbursement. It would be funny if it weren't so...aw heck, it's funny.

There's also a lot of talk that they lost because they weren't "conservative enough". I call this the Tinkerbell theory. If you believe enough in Conservatism, it will work. If you failed, that's proof you didn't believe enough!

So it's likely that we are going to see more sillyness in the future from the remaining Republicans in Congress (for example, our entire Oklahoma delegation). Fortunately, they are no longer in power, so it shouldn't be too damaging, just entertaining.

Awwww...they're so cute when they get all 1980 like that.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Oklahoma, The Land that Time Forgot

Sadly things did not go well here in Oklahoma. Obama did not win a single county. Every Democrat running in a statewide race lost, as did Oliver for Tulsa's representative.

While the rest of the country was having a transformational election, we seemed to be stuck in 2004. The results were exactly the same.
Here are the numbers from the state election board:

2004:
JOHN F. KERRY DEM 503,966 34.43%
GEORGE W. BUSH REP 959,792 65.57%
2008:
BARACK OBAMA DEM 502,329 34.36%
JOHN McCAIN REP 959,808 65.64%


Landslide


I'd like to say "the results are in", but as I write this the 26 electoral votes for Missouri and North Carolina are still up in the air. There's been some kind of weirdness in Georgia too, something about the vote totals being rediculously low, so some folks have thrown their 15 EV's back out too.

However, even without them Obama has the largest electoral victory since Regan. When you add in what happened with the house and senate races, it's clear the Republicans got spanked.

I was expecting the win of course, but the implications of it didn't actually hit me until it was announced. It is very hard indeed not to see this as a vindication our the ideals of freedom and equality that we have strayed so far from these last 8 years. This is both due to the personal story of the winner, and the resounding nature of the defeat of the current party holding the White House.

Perhaps my favorite story of the night was the impromptu celebration that started (in the rain) in front of the White House. (DC, of course, voted %93 for Obama). From CNN:
At least 1,000 people gathered on Washington's Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House late Tuesday night, shouting "Obama! Obama!" and "Yes we can!" Uniformed Secret Service officers were overheard, saying they'd never seen anything like it.


Of course celebrations weren't even limited to this country. Kenya, the birthplace of Obama's father, has declared tomorrow a national holiday. While other countries aren't going quite that far, there are reports of celebrations all over Europe, Africa, and in parts of Asia.

The more interesting (and perhaps relevent) thing is what this does for US clout. For example, European leaders are openly expressing worries that requests from President Obama for more support in places like Afghanistan are going to be difficult to turn down, due to his popularity with their own constituents.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Watch Parties

I just got back from driving a voter to the polls, so now its time to go over the area watch parties.


Tulsa County Democratic Party and
Senator Nacy Riley (SD37) and
George Bullock (HD71) and
Seneca Scott (HD72)
at 7:30 pm
Transport Workers Union Hall
11945 East Pine Street, Tulsa

Senator Tom Adelson (SD78)
Representative Lucky Lamons (HD61)
Representative Jeannie McDaniel (HD78)
7:00 pm
Baxter's Interurban Grill
717 South Houston Avenue, Tulsa

Sebastian Lantos (HD67)
7:00 pm
Bluestone Steakhouse & Seafood Restaurant
10032 South Sheridan Road

Karen Keith (Tulsa CC2)
7:00 pm
Leon's - South Peoria
33rd & Peoria, Tulsa

Georgianna Oliver (1st Congress)
7:00 pm
Downtown Doubletree
616 West 7th St., Tulsa

General
6:00 pm
Jazz Hall of Fame
111 East 1, Tulsa

They Will Enter Zion With Signing

The reports I'm getting are of very heavy turnout, particularly in North Tulsa. For example, the World reported the wait at Mt. Zion Baptist Church at more than an hour and a half. If were were to see Tulsa County go blue this year, this is exactly the reports we'd be seeing right now.

I've added a couple of gadgets from MSNBC to the blog that should report realtime election results, once the polls start to close. If you are in front of a computer then, stay tuned here.

An American Prayer

Conservatives for Obama

You probably know about the Republican moderates supporting Obama, like Colin Powell.

What you may not have heard so much about is the amazing number of Conservative pundits who have come out in support of Obama. One example is Christopher Buckley, son of arch conservative William F. Buckley, founder of National Review.

Another is favorite Conservative talk show guest Andrew Sullivan. Here he was on Colbert last night making a strong case for Obama being the Conservative choice for president.



The direct link to this video is http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/207785/november-03-2008/andrew-sullivan . Email this to your conservative friends.

VOTE

Today is the day we change the world.

To find your polling place in Tulsa County, use this neat tool to find your polling place. Outside Tulsa County, you can use the State's locator. Polls are open *now* and close at 7PM.

If you need a ride, call 747-7933 (League of Women Voters), 584-0001 (Metro Tulsa Urban League), 663-0377 (YWCA of Tulsa), or 850-2048 or 231-3340 (Coalition for the American Dream).



Volunteer Opportunities
Once you've taken care of your own voting responsibilities, here are the volunteer opportunities we have available.
  • Drive people to the polls - Call Darrel Knox at 734-7560
  • Sign Teams - Email Greg Markley
  • Phone Banking - Call Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662
  • Phone Banking to Missouri Voters - email Tom Donahy


Fired Up, Ready to Go!

Monday, November 3, 2008

More Videos

We Have a Lot of Work to Do

This is one that the campaign was actually sending around to everyone on its mailing list. It shows clips from the campaign with a voiceover from Obama. One day some genius is going to make a mint by selling posters with the image at 1:55.



Take the Day Off
This next one shows Matthew Broderick asking everyone to take the day off tomorrow to help the campaign. Even if he's not your favorite actor, or you are too young to even know who the heck he is, this is still something everyone reading this blog should do. My company is patriotic enough that it actually gives us the day off, so I took today off too.


The Rising in Cleveland
This is a video of Bruce Springsteen introducing the Obama family at a rally by singing "The Rising". Its more than 5 minutes, so if you aren't fan of The Boss, you might want to just watch the first minute, then skip ahead to about 4:50.


Jay-Z
If Jay-Z is a bit more your speed (not mine, sorry) then you might be more interested in this video


World's Biggest Obama Supporter

To end on a bit of a lighter (but vaguely creepy) note, meet the world's biggest Obama supporter:

Obama on Native Issues

I found this video of a speech Obama gave on First Nation issues several months back when he made a campaign stop at the Crow Nation (first and only presidential candidate to do so).

A fair bit of this is specific to reservations, but I think lot of the issues he raised will be of great interest here in Oklahoma.

One Day More



Tomorrow is the Judgement Day.
Tomorrow we discover what our God in Heaven has in store.

Last Day of Early Voting


Today is the last day for early voting at your county election board office. The hours are 8AM to 6PM. That means everyone who gets in line by 6PM will get to vote, so feel free to run by after work.

The Tulsa County offices are at 555 North Denver. I have maps to that and other area county board offices here. It may be quite crowded, so it is suggested that you come in from the north and park in one of the nearby church parking lots. Remember that no campaign material (including shirts and buttons) is allowed in a polling place.


Volunteer Opportunities
If you'd like to do a bit more than just vote, there are still plenty of volunteer opportunities available.
  • Drive people to the polls - Call Darrel Knox at 734-7560
  • Sign Teams - Email Greg Markley
  • Phone Banking - Call Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662
  • Phone Banking to Missouri Voters - email Tom Donahy

Sunday, November 2, 2008

McCain's House

Thanks to twoidhd for pointing this out.

With all the talk about McCain's houses, have any of you been curious what one of them would look like on the inside? Well, you are in luck. It turns out he's selling one of them, and there's a video walthrough available online. Just twelve million dollars and its all yours. Don't worry about John; he's got 8 more!

Don't listen to all that talk about John being out of touch with the common man. He has his TV room, just like you.
(click on pictures for full size image)

He's got that back deck, just like the one you worked so hard on.


He's got the enclosed wine room, just like yo...aw...who the hell am I kidding here?


The furnishings alone in these couple of rooms probably cost more than most houses in Oklahoma.


The lesson here is clear: If you get a chance to marry an heiress, do it. Don't let any silly moral consideration, like say being already married to someone else, get in your way. Particularly not if your "old" wife gets crippled and disfigured in an auto accident. Promises are made to be broken.

Remind me again, which candidate shares Oklahoma values?

Video Diary

Obama Congratulates McCain on Cheney Endorsement



I know here in Oklahoma we don't get much of a chance to see presidential commercials, so I've included Obama's new endorsement commercial below:

Democrats on Economics



Since there's no early voting today, I finally have enough of a breather to do something I've been meaning to do for quite a while: inject some facts into the presidential race. A big thanks goes to Brad DeLong for compiling all the pretty graphics for me.

Since John McCain's entire economic plan centers around earmarks, let's start with those. Everyone agrees that the Federal Budget is out of control. So how much good is he liable to do for us by concentrating on earmarks?

Some of you might have to go get your glasses to make out that blue sliver at the top labeled "Earmarks". Is McCain really planning on wasting effort trying to shrink that tiny sliver, or is he just lying to everyone? I almost hope it's the latter, and that's sad.

Democrats are Better Democrats
The traditional Democratic economic goals have always been increasing jobs and economic fairness. How have they done in reality?




Note how in every graph the Democrats are at the top and the Republicans are at the bottom. The only exception is the Roosevelt/Truman cycle, where all our drafted soldiers from WWII came back into the job market at once.

Democrats Are Better Republicans
Republicans, on the other hand, have traditionally sold themselves as the folks who will control the budget deficit, increase the Gross Domestic Product, and be better for the stock market. What has the truth been?



Once again, the Democrats tend to all be clustered at the top, and the Republicans at the bottom. The exceptions for the Democrats again seem to mostly be WWII related. The Republicans would look far worse if not for Eisenhower. He was a popular General drafted into the Republican party before anyone really knew his politics, very much like Colin Powell.

How is it, one might ask, that Democrats do better on Republican goals, when in theory the are concentrating on their own goals? Perhaps it is as Obama keeps saying: businesses do better when they have more customers who can afford their services.

Whatever the reason, the results are pretty clear. When it comes to economics, if your priorities lean Democratic, you should vote for Democrats. If your priorities lean Republican, you should still vote for Democrats.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

McCain and Friends

Early Voting - Day 2


Today is the second day of early voting in Oklahoma. This is the same deal as yesterday with one exception: Polls close at one PM today. So get up a bit early to vote today.

According to reports, there were long lines and congestion at the polls yesterday, but the lines moved very quickly. Although the wait in some places around OKC was quite long, here in Tulsa it was only about 45 minutes.

One of my fellow denziens on SoonerKos who lives in the area reported that parking was a real issue. He suggested:
If you plan on going to The Election Board be prepared to park a couple of blocks away and walk. There is plenty of street parking on Denver or Cheyenne in The Brady Heights Historic District. There was a very long line of cars waiting to park at the Election Building so to help ease congestion come in from the north and park at one of the Churches or on the street.

Also, remember no campaign gear is allowed. Be considerate and bring a coat or sweater to share with any of your neighbors who didn't get the message.

The reports I got were that roughly 5,000 people voted yesterday in Oklahoma County (OKC) and 4,000 in Tulsa County.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Attack of the Robots

From the Obama youtube channel:

More Early Voting

I've seen reports from both Tulsa and Oklahoma City that early voting lines are quite long, but manageable. In both cases the lines are snaking out around the board of election parking lot. However, reports are that the lines move fast. Wait time in OKC this morning was about an hour, and in Tulsa 45 minutes.



Make sure you budget yourself the proper amount of time, but please get out and vote as soon as you can.

First Day of Early Voting



Today is the first day of early voting. Just come on down to your County Election Board offices (see my previous post for directions) between the hours of 8AM and 6PM. For Tulsa County voters that is 555 N. Devner, in downtown Tulsa.

One thing I neglected to mention is that state law prohibits you from entering the polling place wearing any candidate supporting materials. So leave your Obama buttons and shirts at home, or put on a sweater over them. I'd like to ask everyone to bring an extra sweater or jacket to lend in case one of your neighbors in line did not realize this. Some of them might object to voting topless.

If you can't come in today, there is also early voting Saturday and Monday. Please try to vote early this year. The line will probably be shorter, and it will help prevent polling place directed shenanigans from taking your vote away.

Obama Visit
We weren't successful in securing an Obama visit to Tulsa this cycle. However, he will be visting Springfield MO tomorrow night. That's about a 3 hour drive from Tulsa. So if you are up for that kind of road trip, check out the info here. I checked out the venue and it seats about 8,000.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obamathon

In case you missed it (like you were stuck in a closet last night or something), here's Obama's infomercial

Tomorrow - First Day of Voting



If you missed yesterday's deadline to request an Absentee Ballot, than you are going to have to go vote the old-fashioned way: in person.

The good news is that the first day you can do that is not November 4, but rather tomorrow, October 31. That is the first day of early voting in Oklahoma. The other days are Saturday, November 1, and Monday November 3 (the day before the general election).

Early Voting does work a bit differently than regular voting. You do not go to your normal polling place. Instead you must show up at your County Election Board sometime between 8AM and 6PM. The Tulsa area election board offices are:


There is no guarantee that the lines won't be as long on early voting days as they will be for the general election, so budget yourself an hour or so, particularly in Tulsa County. However, if one of these days is better for you than Tuesday, this is when you want to vote.

I sent in my absentee ballot yesterday, so I can tell you from experience that getting the actual voting behind you removes a bit of the stress. So vote early if you can.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Obama Admission

This just in: Obama admits to sharing his toys in Kindergarten.

Absentee - Last Day



This is the last day you can request an Absentee ballot in Oklahoma. We are requesting that everyone vote this way this year, in order to free up line space. This will be particularly important for working folk, those with small children, and those who can't stand in line for hours due to physical infirmity. However, the request needs to be in your county election board's hands today!

Download and print out the request from from the state board of elections website.
Complete the form, and fax it in (or hand-carry it) to your county board of elections. The area Fax numbers are.

  • Tulsa County - 596-5775 (Closes at 5PM)

  • Osage County - 587-4820 (Closes at 4PM)

  • Creek County - 227-6332 (Closes at 5PM)

  • Rodgers County - 341-4666 (Closes at 5PM)

  • Wagoner County - 485-8063 (Closes at 4:30PM)



A couple of days after you do this, you will receive your ballots in the mail. Mrs. Mule and I both have already received our ballots and marked them. I'm sending mine in today, and hers goes in Friday.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Charles

I just saw this really neat video on Kos.

Electoral College Update

It has been more than a week again since I last went over this. News has just been too heavy to have time to revisit the Electoral College since then. Obviously that isn't going to happen again this cycle though. So from now until this time next week I'll try to put the FiveThirtyEight map at the top of all the morning posts.

There has been even more talk about tightening in the general election polling. For example, Gallup shows Obama's lead down to 5 points with a week to go.


What you don't seem to hear as much is that when you split the polls by state and look at the electoral college counts, Obama's lead is not narrowing. Pollster has it at 306(315) to 142(157), Rasmussen has it at 313(305) to 174(174) and CNN now has it at 277 to 174 (same). (Last report's numbers in parentheses). The statistics-based site FiveThirtyEight is actually seeing Obama's lead starting to widen. He now places it at 351.1(343.9) to 186.9(186.9).


Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:
If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.


Yes, you saw that right, Oklahoma is moving in Obama's direction. Here's the pollster graph.

It's still pretty far away from being competitive. However, there's a week left for it to keep going that direction, and I personally think this state is liable to be greatly affected by both new voters and a strong Reverse Bradley effect come election day. Something amazing could very well happen here.

In order to help this process along, I'd like to request everyone please request an absentee ballot today. This is the last day, so I highly suggest you either fax in your request, or hand-carry it to the office.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Obama's Closing Argument

Delivered Today in Canton, OH.

Apply Today


You only have until Wednesday to apply for an absentee ballot. The form can be downloaded from the Oklahoma State Election Board's website. Fill it out and fax it in to your county Election Board office (for Tulsa County: 596-4536).

Lines are expected to be extremely long this year. This means voting absentee is your easiest way to amplify your vote. Not only does it ensure that you will have the time to vote, but it makes the line at your polling place a smidgen shorter, which may make the difference in someone else having a chance to vote.

Myself and Mrs. Skinner faxed in our applications on Thursday and Friday respectively. We both received our ballots on Saturday. Another nice benefit of voting this way is that we get a chance to do research on the little-publicized down-ticket items on the ballot (such as judges and state questions) from the comfort of our own home, rather than in a polling place full of people with impatient multitudes waiting on us to get done.

One thing I should warn you about is that when you get your ballots mailed to you you will need a couple of things to complete them: A number 2 pencil (just like being back in school) and a Notary Public. The pencil shouldn't be tough for anyone. Notary publics can be found at most banks and car dealerships. If you work at an office, there is probably one there too. Ask your head secretary. By law, Notaries cannot charge you anything for notarizing a ballot.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Missed Opportunity

Today Barack goes back on the campaign trail after taking a couple of days off to visit his gravely ill grandmother.

Those two days represented a great opportunity to the McCain campaign. Late in the election they had two precious days where they would have the news media essentially to themselves. They could get their message out with no real competition, perhaps even seize the initiative in the campaign finally. Friday in particular was crucial, as more people are generally paying attention on weekdays. This was a rare and precious gift.

So how did they use their time alone in the spotlight? To make themselves look foolish. Here's an abbreviated list of what the media reported the McCain campaign doing on Friday.

  • Reports that their VP spent $150,000 of campaign funds on clothes.

  • Reports that their highest paid staffer is their VP's hairstylist

  • Their VP testified to a grand jury looking into her abuse of power.

  • Their VP gave a speech outlining her support for "special needs" children and their families (good thing) while taking a swipe at research into the causes of autism (WTF?). In the same speech! Usually politicians at least make you hunt around a bit to find their hypocrisy.

  • Their Ohio campaign faked a racial incident and got caught.

  • Bush's press secretary for nearly half of his administration endorsed Obama.

  • A lot of talk about Obama being way ahead in the polls.

  • All kinds of stories about supporters dumping on the campaign, the candidates, Bush, the party in general, etc.

  • Stories about the VP herself dumping on the campaign.



To give you some idea of the condensed effect of all this, check out this video from Talkingpointsmemo; October 24, 2008: The Day in More Than 100 Seconds:


The really sad part about this is that the boobs running this horrible campaign could indeed still win. Could you imagine the country being run this way?

Remeber, one of the best things you can do right now is request an absentee ballot. Fill out the form and fax it in today.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Wassup Now

Ever wonder what happened to those dudes from the old Budwiser "wassup" commercial?

Well, me neither. But I'm going to show you anyway. It turns out that the Bush years were not kind to them.

Fox Admits Defeat

Well, of course they didn't do it directly. Being up front and honest about these things just isn't in their nature.

I won't go into the details of the B hoax here, as I get so upset about it I'd have trouble coming back. If you want to read the story, click the link.

However when the McCain campaign, and then Fox and Drudge gleefully starting spreading this evil racial lie around, the chairman of Fox wrote the following:

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.


...and of course it turned out to be a hoax.

So there you have it. Even Fox has now admitted that McCain's campaign has been "race-baiting", and that their campaign is over.

Some folks may look at this latest action of the McCain campaign as pathetic, which it is. However, I put it to you that we here in Tulsa don't have the luxury of laughing it off. False accusations of black men assaulting white women is nothing new in this country, and sadly not in this city. When the campaign embarked on this road, they may have thought that it headed in a useful direction. But we here in Tulsa know what the view down at the end of this road looks like:




We all know what the McCain race-baiting tactics are. They are not "just politics". They are not even "dirty tricks". They are evil. As we love our children, our City, our Country, and our God, we are called on to fight it.


Talk to your friends and relatives about this. Also, request your absentee ballot today. Remember that every absentee vote is potentially 2 votes for Obama.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Sitcoms for Obama

Calvin Rees at Demokie found several great Obama related videos. I'm probably going to feel compelled to show 3 of them here at some point, but here's the first.

If you are under 40, I'm not sure how much this is going to mean to you...



My 13yo at least recognized the Fonz; I think from the Family Guy references.

Vote Absentee



Just a reminder that everyone reading this need to submit your request for an absentee ballot Today! It needs to be in the hands of the County Election Board by Wednesday. Also get everyone you know to do the same. Remember that every vote cast for Obama by mail this year is potentially two votes for him; the one you send in and the one someone else will get a chance to cast on Tuesday because you shortened the line by one more person.

My instructions for the process are here. Please email the link to everyone you know.

Electoral College Update

I know I just did this back on Monday, but we are getting down to the wire here, and things actually are changing.

There has been a lot of the talk in the media about "tightening", and it is showing up in most of the electoral college counting polls. However, everyone still has Obama past the number of votes needed to win. To give you a sense of the direction and speed of things, I'll use the common shorthand of putting Monday's numbers in parentheses. Remember that a presidential win requires 270 electoral votes.

Pollster shows some tighening with Obama at 306(315) electoral vote to 157(157) for McCain. Rasmussen also shows it slightly tightened to 286(305) to 174(174). CNN is unchanged (perhaps unupdated) at 277(277) to 174(174). The statistical site FiveThirtyEight on the other hand has Obama's lead growing to 354.4(343.9) to 183.6(194.1). Note that these electoral counts tend to follow behind poll trends by several days. FiveThirtyEight mostly doesn't have that problem, as he reanalyzes polling numbers every day as they come in. That's probably the reason his is going a different direction, although it could also be due to the fact that he doesn't leave any state out as a "tossup".

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Absentee


Yesterday the Tulsa County election board sent out a plea for absentee voters. They are expecting turnout so heavy this year that voting may actually be a serious hardship for many people. Given that, I'd like to request that everyone reading this blog register and vote absentee this year.

Just yesterday I requested an absentee ballot myself. Here's what you do:

Get an absentee ballot request form.

The easiest way is to download it from the state's website, but forms are also available at your county election board (555 N Denver for Tulsa County). Our headquarters at 3930 East 31 Street should also have the forms.

For most people, the form you need is this one. Click the link and print it out now.

If you are "physically incapacitated", or are the caregiver for someone who is, they request you use this form instead.

Get Your Registration Info

To help in this process, I suggest you go to the state's polling place locator website to find your registration information. Fill out the blanks, hit the "Search" button, and you should be presented with your registered name and your voter ID.

If the search does not turn up your registration information, move on to the next step without it and try to do the rest as best you can. However, after you have sent in your request, I highly suggest you call your local election board and verify your registration.

Fill Out the Form

You will need to fill in the following information:
  • Your Name as it appears on your registration

  • Your Address as it appears on your registration

  • The name of the School District or Board of Education district in which you live. Sadly, this information is probably not on your registration record, so you just have to know this. For the Tulsa area it's probably something like "Tulsa", or "Jenks", or "Union", etc.

  • The town or "Ward" you live in.

  • Mark a box and fill in a date for which election(s) you want ballots for.

    To make things simple, I just marked the last box next to "all elections for which I am eligible during calendar year", and filled in the blank to read "2008". This will probably be the only remaining election this year. If you'd like to do this again for future elections, I'd suggest submitting another form to do so later.

  • Fill in the address you would like your ballot mailed to. This can be different than your registered address.

  • Sign it



That's it!

Send it In

Once it is all filled out properly, you need to send the application to your county's board of election office. For Tulsa County that would be by mail (or walk-in) to 55 N Denver, Tulsa 74103-1014. You can also fax the completed for in to their fax number, which for Tulsa County is 596-4536. That is the way I did it yesterday.

Deadline


You must have all of this done and the request must be in their hands at the county office no later than next Wednesday, the 29th.

I cannot stress enough how important doing this is. Just you alone doing this will not only will it make it easier for you to vote (+1 vote for Obama there), but it will also possibly allow one more person who walks in on election day to vote, rather than having to leave in frustration. The people who are going to have the toughest time with the lines are going to be the working poor, the infirm, and those with small children and no secondary caregivers. All of those groups are largely democratic. So every person who votes absentee is potentially 2 votes for Obama that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Plea from the Election Board

I was just forwarded this from Greg:
Employees at the election board implored me to get the word out to as many as possible that everyone should try to vote absentee. Even in early voting they are expecting very long lines and wait times. They noted that the elderly and disabled will not be able to stand in line for an hour or more.

Voting Info pt. 2

Yesterday I gave out some information to help prepare you to vote. So now that you presumably know what you are going to to, the next question is when.

The obvious answer is election day, Tuesday November 4th. On that day you can show up at your polling place any time between 7AM and 7PM.

However, we expect turnout for this election to be huge. Even in the last election, I ended up in a large line that took me half an hour to get through in the morning. This year, I'd say budget an hour, and be prepared to excuse yourself from anything else you might miss if it takes longer. If you try to show up at 5:30 after you get off of work, I wouldn't expect to be out of there before 7.

Don't let this deter you though! I don't care what else you think you are doing that day, you won't do anything more important. If you are worried about your job, don't. By Oklahoma law your employer must give you time off to vote. In fact, under some circumstances it must be paid time off. If you absolutely can't stand this happening on Tuesday though, there are other options.

Absentee Voting
If you don't want worry about waiting all that time, you do have other options. The first is to vote absentee. To do this, print out this form, fill it in, get it notarized, then get it to your county election board. You'll need to write down the address of your polling place, which again can be found here. I'd suggest hand-carrying it there rather than mailing it, as they have to receive it by the 29th of October. If want to mail it in, do so soon! That's only a week from today. You will need it notarized, and your county board is likely to have a notary there or nearby. Any nearby lawyer's office, real-estate agent's office, or car dealer will have a notary too.

Early Voting

Your second option is to vote early. To do this simply show up at the county election board office of the county in which you are registered to vote. For Tulsa County this is 555 N Denver in downtown Tulsa. For other counties you can find the address of your office here. If you live in one of those counties (eg: Osage) for which only a P.O. box is listed, you will need to call the office during business hours to find out the address to show up for early voting. The times and dates of early voting are:
  • Friday, October 31, 8 AM - 6 PM

  • Saturday, November 1, 8 AM - 1 PM

  • Monday, November 3, 8 AM - 6 PM



This is the option we at the campaign are suggesting everyone take, if the travel distance isn't too much of a hardship on you. I know that some folks in northwest Tulsa actually dwell in Osage county, the seat of which is more than an hour's drive away (and through some territory which has not historically been overly friendly to those of us blessed with an abundance of melanin). Even then, if you can't easily squeeze in a 2 hour wait at the polls on Tuesday, a 2 hour round trip on Saturday may be just the thing for you.

Late Voting

There is no such thing as late voting! This is something Repubs like to spread around poor communities before elections to try to trick people into missing the deadline on Tuesday. If you hear or see someone talking about this, you are being lied to.

This is probably the most important election any of us will ever see. Make sure you are a part of it, whatever it takes.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Voting Info


With less than two weeks left until the election, I'd like to go over some voting information with everyone.

First off, to verify that you are registered to vote (and that you know where to show up to vote), you should visit the state election board's Polling Place Locator. You will need to enter your last name, birthdate, and zipcode, and it will show your voter ID number. Click on that to see the address of your polling place, and what voting districts you are in. I highly suggest everyone do this! Polling places change from time to time. Also, make note of your precinct number from this page. You'll need it for the next step.

Next, I suggest you take a look at your ballot now. This will allow you to figure out now, while you aren't under time pressures and surrounded by impatient people, what you need to mark where. Also, there may be some people or things on there you don't know about yet. Better to find out now while you can still educate yourself.

To do this, visit the website for your county election board. In Tulsa county you would go to http://www.tulsacounty.org/Nov42008Ballot.asp. This page has a table mapping the last three digits of precinct numbers to actual pictures of your ballot. Scroll down the page and look for yours.

For each precinct there are two links; one for the ballot for the State and County general election, and one for the City of Tulsa ballot. When you go, I believe they may actually be printed on opposite sides of the same ballot, so make sure to check the back side of your ballot!

The City of Tulsa ballot appears to only have a couple of propositions on it. please do take the time to educate yourself on them, but they are outside of the scope of this campaign. What we care about is the State and County general election ballot.

When you click on that ballot, what you should see is three columns of candidates. Next to each candidate you will see a horizontal arrow pointing to the left, with a big gap in the middle, like in the picture to the right. To select a candidate, you fill in the gap in the arrow next to his or her name.

What I would suggest is that you look for all the grey boxes on your ballot that contain headings. On mine they are labeled PRESIDENTIAL, STATE OFFICERS, CONGRESSIONAL OFFICERS, and LEGISLATIVE AND COUNTY OFFICERS. Under each of those headings will be a box labeled STRAIGHT PARTY VOTING. My suggestion is that you fill in the arrow next to DEMOCRATIC in each of these. You don't have to make any other selections on this side of this ballot if you do that. (In fact, I'd suggest you don't. It might confuse the machines).

The result should look something like what you see to the right.

If you vote straight party like this, you do not need to vote for individual candidates as well. Simply fill out those four headings, and you are done!

Now if you have philosophical problems with voting straight-party, I understand. I've often myself avoided that out of principle, even though everybody I voted for was a Democrat. However, this is the easy way to fill out your ballot and be done with it. Otherwise you will need to read the ballot carefully, and make a selection in every box *except* the straight-party voting boxes. There are lots of variants to the ballots so I can't give direction from here.

Tomorrow I'll try to go over early voting in Oklahoma.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Electoral College Update

With the final voter registration push and all the other news to cover, it's been more than three weeks since my last polling update.

In the popularity polls, Obama has since widened his lead considerably. Since I presented the Gallup graphic last time, I'll use the update here. For reference, our last check had him at the %49 mark on the chart.



Of course the electoral votes are what really matter. When last we checked, Obama was hovering just about 20 to 40 votes under the magic number of 270, while McCain was in the neighborhood of 200. Since then Obama's blown by the magic number of 270, and even past 300 by most reckonings. McCain has slipped down to 150 territory. Pollster has them at 315 to 157, with an additional 68 votes up for grabs in tossup states. Rasmussen has it at 305 to 174, and CNN 277 to 174. FiveThirtyEight (which sadly I didn't know about a month ago), using a statistical method to distribute the tossups, has it at 343.9 to 194.1.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Powell to the People


I just finished watching Colin Powell endorse Barack Obama.

The main thing to know about Colin Powell is that he got where he got in life through his service in the Army, and army values are his values. This means you defend those who can't protect themselves and that you ultimately serve the American people. This is why he is so respected in this country. He also believed in deferring to will of your superiors, and finding and following patrons who can get you ahead. This is what got him to the top in the military, but got him into trouble after he left the Army.

Colin Powell is, like Barack, a child of immigrants who grew up in occasional poverty. In Colin's case, both his parents were from Jamaica, and he grew up in the Bronx. He worked his way up from the bottom of the officer corps in the Army clear to General and eventual Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A lot of folks in the Army, particularly the african-american enlistees, held the man in awe. I remember a video of one poor guy who was meeting Colin at the airfield and looked like he was so nervous he close to passing out.

After he retired there was a lot of pressure on him to "come out" as a republican. At the time they were making a big effort to recruit African-Americans in an attempt to whitewash over their party's unsupportive stances on minority issues. It was pretty clear the Reps had all kinds of great leadership positions lined up for him. My impression at the time was that the main problem was that the guy was just not a Republican.

Sure enough, when he finally did make a statement about it, he said that if he were to be a Republican, it would be a Rockefeller Republican. For those of you who aren't fluent in policialesse, that means as a liberal. This one statement immediately cooled the ardor of the religious right, but the pragmatic libertarian wing of the party still wanted him and his credibility for their whitewashing campaign. So into the Republican fold he came, but with a set of enemies already. Even his patrons felt like he was more of a useful tool than someone to actually be listened to.


Eventually he met the fate of all who the Republican rulers see as useful tools; he was used up and thrown away. Knowing he was the one person in their administration who had any credibility (eg: was known not to lie), they sent Colin up to the UN with their pack of lies about Iraq having WMD's. Of course as soon as the lies were exposed, Colin didn't have any more credibility, so he was no longer useful to the Bush administration. Plus he had an annoying habit of showing scruples, and trying to talk people out of the various stupid ideas the administration had (eg: Unconstitutional jalings, Torture, etc.). So out he went.

I really do feel sorry for the guy, but as we say here in Oklahoma, if you lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas.

Anyway, after watching him for a half an hour, he's still the same guy. Admirably principled, dedicated, thoughtful, but reticent about saying quite what needs to be said about his former superiors. He came close, but did not quite say that "Compassionate Conservatisim" was a failure. He didn't even hint at what everyone on boths sides knows, that it was never anything more than a marketing slogan.

However he spent several minutes in a passionate defense of Muslim Americans. Many people have not quite caught on that the "Obama is a Muslim" whisper campaign is in a way more of a slander against Muslim Americans than against Barack. This is something I've been trying to say for some time, but never with that kind of eloquence or effectiveness. It was enough to make me tear up. This is something he did not have to do with his time this morning. However, they certainly need defending. He saw that and he stepped up and did it on the biggest platform he could get himself. That, if nothing else, should tell you about the character of Colin Powell.

So there you have it. Colin Powell; American hero, flawed warrior, and Barack Obama supporter.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Down Ticket

Lately I've been seeing a lot of Lantos State Representative signs popping up in my neighborhood like mushrooms. It has been kind of in the back of my head to figure out what that's about for a while.

Well, one unexpected surprise from the debate watch party was that Sebastian Lantos himself showed up. Turns out he's running for state house in district 67, which is of course my district. This is not an easy district for a Democrat. It's a bit more than 3 to 1 Republican. So really I should be thankful that I simply have someone to vote for.

However, this isn't just someone who threw his name up as the sacrificial lamb this cycle. Lantos is an energetic small business owner who is working his tail off to win this election. After meeting him, I don't think the man is capable of doing a half-assed job at anything. He'd been campaigning since the morning, and had been up late the night before studying issues in preparation for the morning event. He was complaining a bit about being tired after all that, but he did so with a smile on his face. He clearly had more energy left at that point (pushing 11PM) than I did. Just think what someone like that could accomplish for us in the state house! He's also the current president of the Coalition of Hispanic Organizations. What else? Oh yeah..he's been endorsed by The World.

I'll be proud to mark my ballot for him. Win or lose, I hope to see a lot more of Sebastian Lantos in the future.

Oliver!

Moving up the ticket a bit, Georgiana Oliver is running to replace John Sullivan. She's trying to run a bit to the Right, so she isn't exactly a lot of folks' ideal Democrat. However, John Sullivan is just odious. He franks our house regularly with the most hateful mailers imaginable on the taxpayer's dime. If for no other reason than to save the taxpayer a buck or two and make my own house more peaceful, please vote this far-right clown out of office.

Rice-a-roni

Andrew Rice
made a bit of news recently, thanks to some vastly improved polling numbers.

This still leaves him a bit over 10 points behind, but the momentum seems to be in his favor big time. I hope everyone reading this will do whatever they can to keep it going to election day.

Inhofe is widely regarded as the United States' worst senator. The stupid crap he says occasionally makes international news. We have the chance to do ourselves, our families, our state, our country, and our world a great service all a once by sending Andrew Rice to take his place as our next senator.

Volunteer Opportunities

We are now entering the part of the race where canvassing, going out and talking to voters, is most important. If you'd like to help us with this effort, please contact Mary-Jo via email or at 269-4400. Training will be provided. If nothing else, this is a great way to meet your neighbors.

Volunteers are also requested to help assemble Obama signs at the Transport Worker's Union during the day and on Saturdays and Sundays. Call 361-8384 to help. The activity goes on at the union's print shop, which is in a couple of sheds behind the offices at 11945 E. Pine.

If your free time is hard to come by, one thing you can do is just stake out a busy intersection when you do have time and hold up Obama signs and wave to cars. Obviously this would be most effective during rush hour, but this could really be done anytime during daylight hours.

We will also need drivers to get people to the polls, both for the early (absentee) voting on October 31st, November 1st and second, and for election day itself on the fourth. If you are interested, again contact Mary Jo via email or at 269-4400.

Also, CWA Local 6012 will be phone banking from now until the 24th. If you are interested in helping, please contact Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Debate Wrapup

The final debate of the campaign is over. If you are wondering how it went, the picture here can be considered representative. It was a whole evening of Obama being cool and reasonable and McCain being snippy, erratic, awkward and unreasonable.

McCain had some bizarre fixation with "Joe the Plumber" which put Obama in danger of cracking up at various times. At one point, just to humor McCain, Obama looked straight in the camera and talked to "Joe".

McCain also would jump to attacks in his responses that were complete non-sequiturs. It reminded me a lot of certain no-win arguments I've had with my spouse back in less happy days. McCain had better hope I'm alone in that association.

Interestingly, the two best zingers of the night came not from either candidate's answers, but from moderator Bob Schieffer's questions.
Zinger 1:
... Are each of you tonight willing to sit at this table and say to each other's face what your campaigns and the people in your campaigns have said about each other?
Zinger 2:
I want to ask both of you about the people that you're going to bring into the government, and our best insight yet is who you have picked as your running mates.

So I'll begin by asking both of you this question, and I'll ask you to answer first, Sen. Obama. Why would the country be better off if your running mate became president rather than his running mate?

The instapolls show a huge win for Obama, in the %30 point range with general viewers and the %40 point range among independents. Suffice it to say that I don't think McCain got the game changer he needed out of this debate.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Problem with Polls

Yesterday I went over Oklahoma's (atrocious) poll numbers. However, there are several reasons why polls may be unusually hard to get accurate this cycle. First the negative.


The Bradley Effect.
Named after Tom Bradley, former mayor of L.A. When he ran for Governor of California in 1982 polls had him ahead, but he ended up losing. The theory behind this is that when an African-American is running, people may not want to look like bigots to the cute young pollster asking them questions, so many of them lie. This idea got resurrected this cycle when Hillary came from behind to win New Hampshire.

Even though this theory is eye-catching, it is actually quite controversial among pollsters. They looked hard for a Bradley Effect in later races in various states, and could find no evidence of it. Today is not 1982, and many pollsters claim that the effect has diminished over time. Some even claim it never existed in the first place.

GOP Voter Suppression
When you take a bunch of people who either have no moral scruples in the first place, or feel that they are fighting on the side of God, and put them in a situation where it looks like they are losing, it isn't tough to imagine them doing some unsavory and/or downright illegal things. In other words, they will try to cheat. I'm not saying all Republicans are like this. However, it only takes a few. This is a party that destroyed America's anti-torture principles, which date back to the founding struggle of this country, simply for some imagined expedience. Don't think those same folks will blanch one bit at taking the vote away from some poor people.

However, the GOP is, if nothing else, a party that respects authority. Their best efforts are always directed top-down, and frankly they aren't going to waste them on what looks to be one of their safer states. I expect to see a lot of shenanigans in the next 3 weeks, but I expect them mostly to be directed at blue and swing states. That doesn't mean we won't get some rogues doing caging, but I don't expect it to have a significant effect. I hope I'm right.

Now for the positive:

New Registrations
There have been a huge surge in voter registrations all across the country this cycle, and Oklahoma is no exception. The vast majority of these new registrations are for Democrats.

Unlikely Voters
The polls at this point are all weighted to "likely voters". That means that if you aren't in a demographic group that has historically voted in Oklahoma in past elections, they won't count your answers in the polls as strongly. However, this is definitively not a normal election. People who haven't voted in ages are expected to come out. Since Republicans are generally reliable voters, this effect can only skew Democratic.

Reverse Bradley Effect
Pollsters have actually noticed that Barak Obama has a kind of Bradley Effect in reverse in any state that has a significant African American community. Oklahoma's is about 8%. We are also about 8% native-american and %7 hispanic, both communities that are trending overwhelmingly Obama's way this cycle.

Ground Game
The Democratic get-out-the-vote ground efforts have always been rather shabby compared to what our opponents had to offer. We are doing our best to change that in this state. We still aren't anywhere near where we should be, but we are getting better. This is going to be the big X-factor in this campaign.

This is also where you come in. Don't just sit on your butt this year and exepect your one vote to work its magic. If you love Oklahoma, get out and fight for it. Democratic HQ is at 3930 East 31 Street, and I'm but an email away.

Debate Tonight
The last debate is tonight. That means the last debate watch party at the Circle Cinema Quad this evening starting at 7. See you there.