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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Polling Data

The first polling data that has all of this week's crisis, McCain's bizarre behavior, and the debate on Friday cooked in is starting to trickle in. Its not quite as good as one might think it would be, but its still pretty good.

Rasmussen has had Obama steady at %50 for the last 3 days, after climbing to that point over the course of the week. The Research 2000 Tracking Poll now also shows Obama at %50 with an upward trajectory. Gallup's daily shows Obama at %49, also with an upward vector.



The important thing about those %50 numbers is that once Obama reaches that mark, no amount of undecideds swinging to McCain can pull him ahead.

Of course those of us that lived through 2000 know that national popular vote is not how we decide elections. The electoral counts are looking similarly nice as well. The magic number here is 270. Pollster has Obama and McCain at 229 and 174 respectively, with "leaners" included. Rasmussen has it at 255 and 227 with leaners included. CNN has it at 240 and 200.

Of course this week has shown that a lot can happen quickly, and we still have about 5 weeks to go.