I just saw this really neat video on Kos.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Electoral College Update
It has been more than a week again since I last went over this. News has just been too heavy to have time to revisit the Electoral College since then. Obviously that isn't going to happen again this cycle though. So from now until this time next week I'll try to put the FiveThirtyEight map at the top of all the morning posts.
There has been even more talk about tightening in the general election polling. For example, Gallup shows Obama's lead down to 5 points with a week to go.
What you don't seem to hear as much is that when you split the polls by state and look at the electoral college counts, Obama's lead is not narrowing. Pollster has it at 306(315) to 142(157), Rasmussen has it at 313(305) to 174(174) and CNN now has it at 277 to 174 (same). (Last report's numbers in parentheses). The statistics-based site FiveThirtyEight is actually seeing Obama's lead starting to widen. He now places it at 351.1(343.9) to 186.9(186.9).
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:
Yes, you saw that right, Oklahoma is moving in Obama's direction. Here's the pollster graph.
It's still pretty far away from being competitive. However, there's a week left for it to keep going that direction, and I personally think this state is liable to be greatly affected by both new voters and a strong Reverse Bradley effect come election day. Something amazing could very well happen here.
In order to help this process along, I'd like to request everyone please request an absentee ballot today. This is the last day, so I highly suggest you either fax in your request, or hand-carry it to the office.
There has been even more talk about tightening in the general election polling. For example, Gallup shows Obama's lead down to 5 points with a week to go.
What you don't seem to hear as much is that when you split the polls by state and look at the electoral college counts, Obama's lead is not narrowing. Pollster has it at 306(315) to 142(157), Rasmussen has it at 313(305) to 174(174) and CNN now has it at 277 to 174 (same). (Last report's numbers in parentheses). The statistics-based site FiveThirtyEight is actually seeing Obama's lead starting to widen. He now places it at 351.1(343.9) to 186.9(186.9).
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:
If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.
Yes, you saw that right, Oklahoma is moving in Obama's direction. Here's the pollster graph.
It's still pretty far away from being competitive. However, there's a week left for it to keep going that direction, and I personally think this state is liable to be greatly affected by both new voters and a strong Reverse Bradley effect come election day. Something amazing could very well happen here.
In order to help this process along, I'd like to request everyone please request an absentee ballot today. This is the last day, so I highly suggest you either fax in your request, or hand-carry it to the office.
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