Electoral College Update

It has been more than a week again since I last went over this. News has just been too heavy to have time to revisit the Electoral College since then. Obviously that isn't going to happen again this cycle though. So from now until this time next week I'll try to put the FiveThirtyEight map at the top of all the morning posts.

There has been even more talk about tightening in the general election polling. For example, Gallup shows Obama's lead down to 5 points with a week to go.


What you don't seem to hear as much is that when you split the polls by state and look at the electoral college counts, Obama's lead is not narrowing. Pollster has it at 306(315) to 142(157), Rasmussen has it at 313(305) to 174(174) and CNN now has it at 277 to 174 (same). (Last report's numbers in parentheses). The statistics-based site FiveThirtyEight is actually seeing Obama's lead starting to widen. He now places it at 351.1(343.9) to 186.9(186.9).


Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:

If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.

Yes, you saw that right, Oklahoma is moving in Obama's direction. Here's the pollster graph.

It's still pretty far away from being competitive. However, there's a week left for it to keep going that direction, and I personally think this state is liable to be greatly affected by both new voters and a strong Reverse Bradley effect come election day. Something amazing could very well happen here.

In order to help this process along, I'd like to request everyone please request an absentee ballot today. This is the last day, so I highly suggest you either fax in your request, or hand-carry it to the office.

Obama's Closing Argument

Delivered Today in Canton, OH.

Apply Today

You only have until Wednesday to apply for an absentee ballot. The form can be downloaded from the Oklahoma State Election Board's website. Fill it out and fax it in to your county Election Board office (for Tulsa County: 596-4536).

Lines are expected to be extremely long this year. This means voting absentee is your easiest way to amplify your vote. Not only does it ensure that you will have the time to vote, but it makes the line at your polling place a smidgen shorter, which may make the difference in someone else having a chance to vote.

Myself and Mrs. Skinner faxed in our applications on Thursday and Friday respectively. We both received our ballots on Saturday. Another nice benefit of voting this way is that we get a chance to do research on the little-publicized down-ticket items on the ballot (such as judges and state questions) from the comfort of our own home, rather than in a polling place full of people with impatient multitudes waiting on us to get done.

One thing I should warn you about is that when you get your ballots mailed to you you will need a couple of things to complete them: A number 2 pencil (just like being back in school) and a Notary Public. The pencil shouldn't be tough for anyone. Notary publics can be found at most banks and car dealerships. If you work at an office, there is probably one there too. Ask your head secretary. By law, Notaries cannot charge you anything for notarizing a ballot.

Missed Opportunity

Today Barack goes back on the campaign trail after taking a couple of days off to visit his gravely ill grandmother.

Those two days represented a great opportunity to the McCain campaign. Late in the election they had two precious days where they would have the news media essentially to themselves. They could get their message out with no real competition, perhaps even seize the initiative in the campaign finally. Friday in particular was crucial, as more people are generally paying attention on weekdays. This was a rare and precious gift.

So how did they use their time alone in the spotlight? To make themselves look foolish. Here's an abbreviated list of what the media reported the McCain campaign doing on Friday.

• Reports that their VP spent $150,000 of campaign funds on clothes.


• Reports that their highest paid staffer is their VP's hairstylist


• Their VP testified to a grand jury looking into her abuse of power.


• Their VP gave a speech outlining her support for "special needs" children and their families (good thing) while taking a swipe at research into the causes of autism (WTF?). In the same speech! Usually politicians at least make you hunt around a bit to find their hypocrisy.


• Their Ohio campaign faked a racial incident and got caught.


• Bush's press secretary for nearly half of his administration endorsed Obama.


• A lot of talk about Obama being way ahead in the polls.


• All kinds of stories about supporters dumping on the campaign, the candidates, Bush, the party in general, etc.


• Stories about the VP herself dumping on the campaign.

To give you some idea of the condensed effect of all this, check out this video from Talkingpointsmemo; October 24, 2008: The Day in More Than 100 Seconds:


The really sad part about this is that the boobs running this horrible campaign could indeed still win. Could you imagine the country being run this way?

Remeber, one of the best things you can do right now is request an absentee ballot. Fill out the form and fax it in today.

Wassup Now

Ever wonder what happened to those dudes from the old Budwiser "wassup" commercial?

Well, me neither. But I'm going to show you anyway. It turns out that the Bush years were not kind to them.

Fox Admits Defeat

Well, of course they didn't do it directly. Being up front and honest about these things just isn't in their nature.

I won't go into the details of the B hoax here, as I get so upset about it I'd have trouble coming back. If you want to read the story, click the link.

However when the McCain campaign, and then Fox and Drudge gleefully starting spreading this evil racial lie around, the chairman of Fox wrote the following:

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

...and of course it turned out to be a hoax.

So there you have it. Even Fox has now admitted that McCain's campaign has been "race-baiting", and that their campaign is over.

Some folks may look at this latest action of the McCain campaign as pathetic, which it is. However, I put it to you that we here in Tulsa don't have the luxury of laughing it off. False accusations of black men assaulting white women is nothing new in this country, and sadly not in this city. When the campaign embarked on this road, they may have thought that it headed in a useful direction. But we here in Tulsa know what the view down at the end of this road looks like:




We all know what the McCain race-baiting tactics are. They are not "just politics". They are not even "dirty tricks". They are evil. As we love our children, our City, our Country, and our God, we are called on to fight it.


Talk to your friends and relatives about this. Also, request your absentee ballot today. Remember that every absentee vote is potentially 2 votes for Obama.

Sitcoms for Obama

Calvin Rees at Demokie found several great Obama related videos. I'm probably going to feel compelled to show 3 of them here at some point, but here's the first.

If you are under 40, I'm not sure how much this is going to mean to you...

My 13yo at least recognized the Fonz; I think from the Family Guy references.