After all the good polling news I've been reporting, I think I'd be remiss in not also spending some time talking about the bad. Namely Oklahoma's numbers. They aren't just bad, they are crappy. The trend isn't even particularly good.
The two sharp angles there are I believe the Republican convention (and Palin pick), and the start of the bank bailout crisis. Notice how the crisis didn't actually turn McCain's number around, it just stopped his growth.
If you look at these numbers, they put us in the rarefied territory of only two other "red" states: Utah and Idaho (%29.6 and %29.5 Obama respectively). This is why a lot of the area Obama campaigns (but not us!) are asking area volunteers to abandon Oklahoma and drive to Missouri or Colorado to help out there.
Utah and Idaho have a several things in common. They are both very sparsely populated states. They are very isolated states, cut off from this country's major population centers by rugged mountain ranges and vast distances. They are monocultural. Idaho is %97 white. Utah is %95 white and %60 Mormon. Oklahoma doesn't really look much like those states at all, so why is it polling like them?
One of the main reasons is that, while we have large native and african-american minorities in this state, they historically don't vote. All of these polls are skewed by "likely voter" weightings. Thus no matter how strongly that quarter of the state feels about a candidate, it isn't going to show up in the polls.
The problem with this logic is that this is simply not a typical election. Tomorrow I'll go over that in more detail, and why we have hope and should keep fighting for Oklahoma.
Debate
Don't forget the debate watch party tomorrow night. If you aren't hosting or attending one in your neighborhood, meet us at the Circle Quad.
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There may be a reverse Tom Bradley effect. When making calls in my precinct trying to place lawn signs, I have had many tell me that they will NOT host a bumper sticker or lawn sign for fear of their property. However, they will vote for Obama. A few refuse to share their opinions, but are open to hearing what I will say. There seems to be a climate of fear among Democrats in northeast Oklahoma about coming out publicly for Obama.
On the other hand, many Democrats on my list--and my precinct list only contained Democrats--tell me that they cannot vote for either Obama or McCain. A few of these are diehard Hillary Clinton supporters. Others are just plain skeptical of Obama. They ask how did Obama come out of nowhere so fast? How will he come up with the money for tax cuts for 95% of the people? If these Democrats voted Democratic in the last two elections, my hopes for Oklahoma remains low.
> There may be a reverse Tom Bradley effect.
I hadn't thought about the "silent democrats" angle. That is definitely going on though. I know in my own neighborhood once I put out my Obama signs, a whole bunch of others started popping up. It was like everyone was afraid to be the first one to go public.
> They ask how did Obama come out of nowhere so fast?
That part I can answer for them: Because he's damn good, that's how.
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