Polling Data

The first polling data that has all of this week's crisis, McCain's bizarre behavior, and the debate on Friday cooked in is starting to trickle in. Its not quite as good as one might think it would be, but its still pretty good.

Rasmussen has had Obama steady at %50 for the last 3 days, after climbing to that point over the course of the week. The Research 2000 Tracking Poll now also shows Obama at %50 with an upward trajectory. Gallup's daily shows Obama at %49, also with an upward vector.



The important thing about those %50 numbers is that once Obama reaches that mark, no amount of undecideds swinging to McCain can pull him ahead.

Of course those of us that lived through 2000 know that national popular vote is not how we decide elections. The electoral counts are looking similarly nice as well. The magic number here is 270. Pollster has Obama and McCain at 229 and 174 respectively, with "leaners" included. Rasmussen has it at 255 and 227 with leaners included. CNN has it at 240 and 200.

Of course this week has shown that a lot can happen quickly, and we still have about 5 weeks to go.

Debate Wrapup

We had a huge turn-out last night. Mike's count came to over 100! At one point midway through I turned around to look, and the crowd stretched all the way back to the door. Now I see why Tulsans for Obama needed their own watch party. There simply would not have been room.

It was great to get a chance to meet some of you in person. I particularly liked that Mike has us go around and do some introductions before the actual debate started. We had people from at least five different states (four of them "battleground" states). We had quite a few first-time voters, and several people who have been voting for more than 30 years. I brought one of my legion of mini-mules. He won't be old enough to vote until the 2016 general election, but wanted to come see this. On the other extreme, we had a World War II vet who had cast his first vote for Truman in 1948. He is now, of course, an Obama supporter.


The Stump of Jesse
Listening to him reminisce, it occurred to me that my own first vote ever in a presidential campaign was 20 years ago, for Jesse Jackson. For those of you who weren't around then, Jesse won 11 primaries that year, and for a while was the front-runner for the nomination.

Since it was my first election, I researched the candidates positions as thoroughly as I could, and picked the one who best supported my views on the issues. That happened to be Jesse. So you can imagine my frustration when, even while he was the front-runner, all the media wanted to ask him was What do you really want? Like it couldn't possibly be, you know, to be president or anything.

No matter what your opinions are about Jesse, he laid the groundwork two decades ago for what you saw last night. There was a brief moment when the candidates were shaking hands at the beginning where I was thinking, Holy ****, that's an African-American up there being taken seriously. Even better, the moment was brief, and after that he was just one of the two people up there interviewing for the job. Clearly the better one, at that.

Results
Sadly, you can never tell what the story is going to be after the debate simply by watching the debate. Most people don't watch, so the general opinion of who won comes out of the mouths of the talking heads on TV after they've had about five days to masticate on it. The reps of course had their "McCain wins the debate" mini-campaign up and running even before the debate started. Things look good so far though. The snap polls afterward seem to indicate an Obama win by around %10 points or so. If that can hold, the percentages are liable to increase in the coming days.

As for the wider election, I have to wonder. This debate was on supposedly McCain's best subject, National Security. Not pulling out a win here is a bad sign for him. However, this was such a bad week for McCain that *any* change of subject, even to a bit of a loss in a debate, is a good thing for him.

On to Nashville
The next debate on October 7 is McCain's favorite format (Town Hall), so he has a chance to look better. The final one on the 15th will be normal format, and on the economy. If he doesn't watch it, Obama will plaster him to the wall in that one.

I'm not talking about the VP debate on the 2nd (next Thursday), because I don't think it really matters that much in the long run. If it did Dan Quayle and George Bush Sr. would never have been elected. However, it will be worth watching because one of those two will be in the White House for the next 4-8 years, and possibly president after that. I'll be at the Circle Cinema that night, and I hope to see you there too.

Watch Party ON!

I just wanted to get out a quick message about the watch party tonight. McCain has agreed to show up, so the debate is indeed on at 8 tonight. The watch party at the Circle Cinema starts at 7. I haven't heard anything about food or refreshments, so my suggestion would be to eat before you show up.

Also, I got an email from "OFA OK HQ" today about another watch party at the Transport Workers Hall. This was a bit confusing to me at least, so I want everyone to understand that this is a different watch party. The venue for our party has not changed; it is at the Circle Cinema, 12 South Lewis Avenue in Tulsa. Details and registration here.

"OFA OK" I believe is Obama For America - Oklahoma, aka Tulsans for Obama. Why they chose to have their own separate party rather than join with the 10 other area Obama groups at the Circle, I'm not really sure. But I suppose if you arrive at the Circle and it is full, that would be an alternate location you could go to. The address is 11945 E. Pine.

Weekend Events

Our big registration event this weekend is an event in Creek county. We need lots of volunteers for this one, so if you have some time to donate, please come out. I'll let Greg talk about it in his own words below

This Saturday, 9/27/08, you can help turn Creek County blue! Saturday, , Oklahoma For Obama will work with our neighbors in Creek County (Sapulpa, Bristow, etc,) in a one day all out registration drive.
We will meet @ DEM. HQs, 3930 East 31st St. in Tulsa @ 8:00 for orientation and voter reg. 101 training. Then we will carpool and caravan to the Bristow @ 10th and Chestnut.

You should bring: a clipboard, pens, sun screen, a hat. water and a "Yes We Can!" attitude.

We need to know how many folks will join us so please RSVP either: mjhales@staufferlaw.com or stephanielewisimcot@gmail.com

One thing I should add is that you cannot wear any apparel with politically identifying messages on it while registering voters. So please leave your Lick Bush T-Shirt in the closet just this once.

Because of the scale and time of this event, Mary Jo won't be able to support the TU Tailgate party this Saturday. However, there is still a local democratic event going on there, in support of Chad Hawkins, a candidate for State House in district 79. This is being held on Saturday before the game at Ella's Deli at 3208 East 11th St.

Debate Watch Party

McChicken or no McChicken, as of now this is still being held. If you are planning on coming, I'd suggest RSVPing here or here. That will allow the organizers the ability to send you reminders, and perhaps a cancellation notice in the exceedingly unlikely event that occurs.

While we are on the subject of McChicken, Mary Jo asked if I could dig up a video of our favorite septuagenarian doing the chicken dance. I got pretty close. So this video is for her:

McChicken

By now you have probably already heard that McCain is trying to chicken out of the debates. It appears he wants us to believe that the looming financial crisis is so important that he, as a senator, can't spare time for such mundane trivia as helping the people of this country decide who's going to lead it five short weeks from now.

This is the same "senator" who hasn't shown up for a vote since April. Senators Obama and Clinton managed to take time out of their busy campaign schedules to make important votes during that time. Even Ted Kennedy, undergoing treatment for malignant brain cancer, has found some votes so important that he had himself helped into the chamber to vote a time or two. But not John McCain.

So its pretty clear that it's not his pressing senatorial duties that are worrying McCain. Likewise, I doubt his primary concern in wanting to cancel the vice-presidential debate is his running mate's gubernatorial duties in her small (and financially flush) state. It's pretty obvious that he's simply afraid of the debates.

Obama could have agreed to this. After all, he's ahead right now, so one could argue that the debates can only hurt him. However, his response is that at this moment, the debates are more important than ever. Notice how he's already fighting for you; in this case for your ability to make an informed decision on November 4.



Obama's having none of it, so as of this writing the debates are still on. This means that the watch party tomorrow night is also still on. Join us at the Circle Cinema an hour before the debate starts.

Registration Report

I talked to Greg and Mary Jo last night. We picked up about 315 registrations last weekend. That's half again as many as the week before. Greg registered a first-time voter born in 1941, and Mary Jo got one born in 1940. Both specifically registered because they were worried about "that crazy Palin woman".

With more volunteers we can improve on even these numbers this weekend. You can be an important part of it. Just call one of the coordinators and ask how you can help. Mary Jo can be reached at 269-4400, and Greg can be reached via gregmarkley@att.net .

Creek County
For those of you in or near Creek County (for you insular Tulsans, if you have a car this means you), we are running a one day voter drive there on the 27th. We need lots of volunteers for this. The more we have, the more successful this will be. Please get hold of Greg at gregmarkley@att.net if you'd like to help.

TU Tailgate Party
In addition to the typical Wal-Marts and flea markets, Mary Jo is planning on working the TU tailgate party this weekend. Kickoff is at 6PM on the 27th, but of course the tailgate party would start some time before then. Call her at 269-4400 to help.

Getting the Word Out
Please take the time today to send a link to this blog to least two other people. The more eyeballs we have in here, the stronger the campaign will be. We are off to a great start, and are growing, but we need our efforts to grow exponentially. We don't have the time to sit around and wait for everyone to come to us.

Debate watch parties

I wanted to get this out now so everyone can make their plans accordingly.

Mike Workman and a whole host of area Obama organizations are hosting watch parties for the debates at the Circle Cinema. The first one of course is this Friday at 7 PM (debate starts at 8).

The Circle Cinema is at 12 South Lewis Avenue here in Tulsa. The other debates will be on October 2nd, 7th, and 15th. With the race as close as it is, these debates will probably be the turning point in the campaign. You don't have to suffer (or thrill) through them in silence at home.

Mike would like RSVPs either here or here, but I do not believe an RSVP is necessary to show up, just encouraged. This is a great chance to meet fellow area Obama/Biden supporters and compare notes, or just socialize. So make plans to be there this Friday at 7.