Electoral College Update

With the final voter registration push and all the other news to cover, it's been more than three weeks since my last polling update.

In the popularity polls, Obama has since widened his lead considerably. Since I presented the Gallup graphic last time, I'll use the update here. For reference, our last check had him at the %49 mark on the chart.



Of course the electoral votes are what really matter. When last we checked, Obama was hovering just about 20 to 40 votes under the magic number of 270, while McCain was in the neighborhood of 200. Since then Obama's blown by the magic number of 270, and even past 300 by most reckonings. McCain has slipped down to 150 territory. Pollster has them at 315 to 157, with an additional 68 votes up for grabs in tossup states. Rasmussen has it at 305 to 174, and CNN 277 to 174. FiveThirtyEight (which sadly I didn't know about a month ago), using a statistical method to distribute the tossups, has it at 343.9 to 194.1.

Powell to the People

I just finished watching Colin Powell endorse Barack Obama.

The main thing to know about Colin Powell is that he got where he got in life through his service in the Army, and army values are his values. This means you defend those who can't protect themselves and that you ultimately serve the American people. This is why he is so respected in this country. He also believed in deferring to will of your superiors, and finding and following patrons who can get you ahead. This is what got him to the top in the military, but got him into trouble after he left the Army.

Colin Powell is, like Barack, a child of immigrants who grew up in occasional poverty. In Colin's case, both his parents were from Jamaica, and he grew up in the Bronx. He worked his way up from the bottom of the officer corps in the Army clear to General and eventual Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A lot of folks in the Army, particularly the african-american enlistees, held the man in awe. I remember a video of one poor guy who was meeting Colin at the airfield and looked like he was so nervous he close to passing out.

After he retired there was a lot of pressure on him to "come out" as a republican. At the time they were making a big effort to recruit African-Americans in an attempt to whitewash over their party's unsupportive stances on minority issues. It was pretty clear the Reps had all kinds of great leadership positions lined up for him. My impression at the time was that the main problem was that the guy was just not a Republican.

Sure enough, when he finally did make a statement about it, he said that if he were to be a Republican, it would be a Rockefeller Republican. For those of you who aren't fluent in policialesse, that means as a liberal. This one statement immediately cooled the ardor of the religious right, but the pragmatic libertarian wing of the party still wanted him and his credibility for their whitewashing campaign. So into the Republican fold he came, but with a set of enemies already. Even his patrons felt like he was more of a useful tool than someone to actually be listened to.


Eventually he met the fate of all who the Republican rulers see as useful tools; he was used up and thrown away. Knowing he was the one person in their administration who had any credibility (eg: was known not to lie), they sent Colin up to the UN with their pack of lies about Iraq having WMD's. Of course as soon as the lies were exposed, Colin didn't have any more credibility, so he was no longer useful to the Bush administration. Plus he had an annoying habit of showing scruples, and trying to talk people out of the various stupid ideas the administration had (eg: Unconstitutional jalings, Torture, etc.). So out he went.

I really do feel sorry for the guy, but as we say here in Oklahoma, if you lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas.

Anyway, after watching him for a half an hour, he's still the same guy. Admirably principled, dedicated, thoughtful, but reticent about saying quite what needs to be said about his former superiors. He came close, but did not quite say that "Compassionate Conservatisim" was a failure. He didn't even hint at what everyone on boths sides knows, that it was never anything more than a marketing slogan.

However he spent several minutes in a passionate defense of Muslim Americans. Many people have not quite caught on that the "Obama is a Muslim" whisper campaign is in a way more of a slander against Muslim Americans than against Barack. This is something I've been trying to say for some time, but never with that kind of eloquence or effectiveness. It was enough to make me tear up. This is something he did not have to do with his time this morning. However, they certainly need defending. He saw that and he stepped up and did it on the biggest platform he could get himself. That, if nothing else, should tell you about the character of Colin Powell.

So there you have it. Colin Powell; American hero, flawed warrior, and Barack Obama supporter.

Down Ticket

Lately I've been seeing a lot of Lantos State Representative signs popping up in my neighborhood like mushrooms. It has been kind of in the back of my head to figure out what that's about for a while.

Well, one unexpected surprise from the debate watch party was that Sebastian Lantos himself showed up. Turns out he's running for state house in district 67, which is of course my district. This is not an easy district for a Democrat. It's a bit more than 3 to 1 Republican. So really I should be thankful that I simply have someone to vote for.

However, this isn't just someone who threw his name up as the sacrificial lamb this cycle. Lantos is an energetic small business owner who is working his tail off to win this election. After meeting him, I don't think the man is capable of doing a half-assed job at anything. He'd been campaigning since the morning, and had been up late the night before studying issues in preparation for the morning event. He was complaining a bit about being tired after all that, but he did so with a smile on his face. He clearly had more energy left at that point (pushing 11PM) than I did. Just think what someone like that could accomplish for us in the state house! He's also the current president of the Coalition of Hispanic Organizations. What else? Oh yeah..he's been endorsed by The World.

I'll be proud to mark my ballot for him. Win or lose, I hope to see a lot more of Sebastian Lantos in the future.

Oliver!

Moving up the ticket a bit, Georgiana Oliver is running to replace John Sullivan. She's trying to run a bit to the Right, so she isn't exactly a lot of folks' ideal Democrat. However, John Sullivan is just odious. He franks our house regularly with the most hateful mailers imaginable on the taxpayer's dime. If for no other reason than to save the taxpayer a buck or two and make my own house more peaceful, please vote this far-right clown out of office.

Rice-a-roni

Andrew Rice made a bit of news recently, thanks to some vastly improved polling numbers.

This still leaves him a bit over 10 points behind, but the momentum seems to be in his favor big time. I hope everyone reading this will do whatever they can to keep it going to election day.

Inhofe is widely regarded as the United States' worst senator. The stupid crap he says occasionally makes international news. We have the chance to do ourselves, our families, our state, our country, and our world a great service all a once by sending Andrew Rice to take his place as our next senator.

Volunteer Opportunities

We are now entering the part of the race where canvassing, going out and talking to voters, is most important. If you'd like to help us with this effort, please contact Mary-Jo via email or at 269-4400. Training will be provided. If nothing else, this is a great way to meet your neighbors.

Volunteers are also requested to help assemble Obama signs at the Transport Worker's Union during the day and on Saturdays and Sundays. Call 361-8384 to help. The activity goes on at the union's print shop, which is in a couple of sheds behind the offices at 11945 E. Pine.

If your free time is hard to come by, one thing you can do is just stake out a busy intersection when you do have time and hold up Obama signs and wave to cars. Obviously this would be most effective during rush hour, but this could really be done anytime during daylight hours.

We will also need drivers to get people to the polls, both for the early (absentee) voting on October 31st, November 1st and second, and for election day itself on the fourth. If you are interested, again contact Mary Jo via email or at 269-4400.

Also, CWA Local 6012 will be phone banking from now until the 24th. If you are interested in helping, please contact Dave Ratcliff at 906-0662.

Debate Wrapup

The final debate of the campaign is over. If you are wondering how it went, the picture here can be considered representative. It was a whole evening of Obama being cool and reasonable and McCain being snippy, erratic, awkward and unreasonable.

McCain had some bizarre fixation with "Joe the Plumber" which put Obama in danger of cracking up at various times. At one point, just to humor McCain, Obama looked straight in the camera and talked to "Joe".

McCain also would jump to attacks in his responses that were complete non-sequiturs. It reminded me a lot of certain no-win arguments I've had with my spouse back in less happy days. McCain had better hope I'm alone in that association.

Interestingly, the two best zingers of the night came not from either candidate's answers, but from moderator Bob Schieffer's questions.
Zinger 1:

... Are each of you tonight willing to sit at this table and say to each other's face what your campaigns and the people in your campaigns have said about each other?

Zinger 2:

I want to ask both of you about the people that you're going to bring into the government, and our best insight yet is who you have picked as your running mates.

So I'll begin by asking both of you this question, and I'll ask you to answer first, Sen. Obama. Why would the country be better off if your running mate became president rather than his running mate?

The instapolls show a huge win for Obama, in the %30 point range with general viewers and the %40 point range among independents. Suffice it to say that I don't think McCain got the game changer he needed out of this debate.

The Problem with Polls

Yesterday I went over Oklahoma's (atrocious) poll numbers. However, there are several reasons why polls may be unusually hard to get accurate this cycle. First the negative.


The Bradley Effect.
Named after Tom Bradley, former mayor of L.A. When he ran for Governor of California in 1982 polls had him ahead, but he ended up losing. The theory behind this is that when an African-American is running, people may not want to look like bigots to the cute young pollster asking them questions, so many of them lie. This idea got resurrected this cycle when Hillary came from behind to win New Hampshire.

Even though this theory is eye-catching, it is actually quite controversial among pollsters. They looked hard for a Bradley Effect in later races in various states, and could find no evidence of it. Today is not 1982, and many pollsters claim that the effect has diminished over time. Some even claim it never existed in the first place.

GOP Voter Suppression
When you take a bunch of people who either have no moral scruples in the first place, or feel that they are fighting on the side of God, and put them in a situation where it looks like they are losing, it isn't tough to imagine them doing some unsavory and/or downright illegal things. In other words, they will try to cheat. I'm not saying all Republicans are like this. However, it only takes a few. This is a party that destroyed America's anti-torture principles, which date back to the founding struggle of this country, simply for some imagined expedience. Don't think those same folks will blanch one bit at taking the vote away from some poor people.

However, the GOP is, if nothing else, a party that respects authority. Their best efforts are always directed top-down, and frankly they aren't going to waste them on what looks to be one of their safer states. I expect to see a lot of shenanigans in the next 3 weeks, but I expect them mostly to be directed at blue and swing states. That doesn't mean we won't get some rogues doing caging, but I don't expect it to have a significant effect. I hope I'm right.

Now for the positive:

New Registrations
There have been a huge surge in voter registrations all across the country this cycle, and Oklahoma is no exception. The vast majority of these new registrations are for Democrats.

Unlikely Voters
The polls at this point are all weighted to "likely voters". That means that if you aren't in a demographic group that has historically voted in Oklahoma in past elections, they won't count your answers in the polls as strongly. However, this is definitively not a normal election. People who haven't voted in ages are expected to come out. Since Republicans are generally reliable voters, this effect can only skew Democratic.

Reverse Bradley Effect
Pollsters have actually noticed that Barak Obama has a kind of Bradley Effect in reverse in any state that has a significant African American community. Oklahoma's is about 8%. We are also about 8% native-american and %7 hispanic, both communities that are trending overwhelmingly Obama's way this cycle.

Ground Game
The Democratic get-out-the-vote ground efforts have always been rather shabby compared to what our opponents had to offer. We are doing our best to change that in this state. We still aren't anywhere near where we should be, but we are getting better. This is going to be the big X-factor in this campaign.

This is also where you come in. Don't just sit on your butt this year and exepect your one vote to work its magic. If you love Oklahoma, get out and fight for it. Democratic HQ is at 3930 East 31 Street, and I'm but an email away.

Debate Tonight
The last debate is tonight. That means the last debate watch party at the Circle Cinema Quad this evening starting at 7. See you there.

The Bad News

After all the good polling news I've been reporting, I think I'd be remiss in not also spending some time talking about the bad. Namely Oklahoma's numbers. They aren't just bad, they are crappy. The trend isn't even particularly good.



The two sharp angles there are I believe the Republican convention (and Palin pick), and the start of the bank bailout crisis. Notice how the crisis didn't actually turn McCain's number around, it just stopped his growth.

If you look at these numbers, they put us in the rarefied territory of only two other "red" states: Utah and Idaho (%29.6 and %29.5 Obama respectively). This is why a lot of the area Obama campaigns (but not us!) are asking area volunteers to abandon Oklahoma and drive to Missouri or Colorado to help out there.

Utah and Idaho have a several things in common. They are both very sparsely populated states. They are very isolated states, cut off from this country's major population centers by rugged mountain ranges and vast distances. They are monocultural. Idaho is %97 white. Utah is %95 white and %60 Mormon. Oklahoma doesn't really look much like those states at all, so why is it polling like them?

One of the main reasons is that, while we have large native and african-american minorities in this state, they historically don't vote. All of these polls are skewed by "likely voter" weightings. Thus no matter how strongly that quarter of the state feels about a candidate, it isn't going to show up in the polls.

The problem with this logic is that this is simply not a typical election. Tomorrow I'll go over that in more detail, and why we have hope and should keep fighting for Oklahoma.

Debate

Don't forget the debate watch party tomorrow night. If you aren't hosting or attending one in your neighborhood, meet us at the Circle Quad.