Debate Wrapup

We had perhaps a smaller crowd at the Circle last night than for the previous two debates, but it still overflowed the Quad. I forgot to ask Mike, but I'm guessing it was somewhere in the vicinity of 70 people.

McCain looked much better this time around. He was smother, and clearly more comfortable. You can tell this is his format. Obama of course was just as smooth as ever, but the difference wasn't there like in the previous debate. I actually left a bit disappointed, afraid that this would be chalked up as a McCain "win". McCain made his points well, and did it repeatedly.

The thing is, I'm not an independent or a republican, so I don't know what's in their heads. I can guess what republicans are going to say, just by taking a look at what's in their best interest to say (always be thankful for the gift of a predictable opponent). But for independents, I have to read their reactions to have any clue.

Upon getting home and reading the reactions, things are actually looking good for Obama. Very good. The insta-polls show most folks calling it an Obama win. The numbers calling it a McCain win were in the neighborhood of %26. That's almost exactly the same as the percentage of people who self identify as republican these days. What all this seems to mean is that, although McCain may be making his points just fine, nobody but the party faithful is buying it anymore.

Oh, and the last debate is next Wednesday (also shown at the Circle), and it is in the format that favors Obama, and is going to be entirely on the economy. Sorry to see you drowning there John. Here, have an anchor.

Electoral Map
I know it's only been a couple of days since I last went over the electoral maps, but they have all been updated since, and the change is quite dramatic. CNN just made a minor tweak, and has Obama up to 264 and McCain down to 174. Remember that to win the presidency, 270 is the magic number. McCain would essentially have to run the board of the tossups to take it. That's not gonna happen.

However, that turns out to be the conservative map. Pollster (long my personal favorite) now has the map at Obama 320, McCain 163! That isn't just an Obama win, but a win with 50EV's to spare. Of their 55 tossup EV's, a quick mouse-over shows Obama with slight leads for 18 of them, and a dead tie for North Carolina's 15.

Oh, and the Rasmussen poll? Obama 321, McCain 174.

Can McCain catch up? His allies don't seem to think so. But I don't want anyone reading this to become complacent. A simple win is not enough. What happens in this election is going to be the punctuation mark on our last eight years of disdain for our constitution, our principles, and even common decency. The rest of the world, and history itself will view this election as a referendum on our recent behavior. This needs to be a landslide. The bigger, the better, and any effort that moves so much as one vote is a blow for morality.

Don't feel sorry for the Republicans. Take your inspiration from Conan here.


Registration
...which leads me back to this topic. Voters have only until this Friday to register. I'm told that the county board of elections plans to stay open until midnight on Friday to take applications. Registering voters is the best thing you can be doing right now for your hometown, your state, and your country.